New York right-hander Ivan Nova toes the rubber with a 5.04 ERA and 1.41 WHIP this season, including a 5.08 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road and a 6.28 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over his last three starts.
Nova also owns a 4.81 FIP in 74.2 innings of work this season, including a 4.66 FIP on the road and a 6.29 FIP in the month of June. Last month was particularly difficult for the 29-year-old as he posted a 7.52 ERA in 26.1 innings, together with a 7.9% BB% and an 8.7% K-BB%.
Technically speaking, the Yankees are a money-burning 2-6 in Nova’s last 8 road starts, 2-7 in his last 9 starts in game 1 of a series and 0-4 in his last four outings overall. New York’s bullpen also continues to struggle as away from home where it owns an alarming 5.23 ERA in 115.3 innings this season. Meanwhile, Cleveland sends a surging Trevor Bauer to the mound, who is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over his last three starts.
Overall, Bauer is 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 2016, which is supported by a 3.47 FIP and an elite ground ball rate (50.6%). The 25-year-old is also displaying the best command and control of his major league career (3.12 BB/9 vs. 4.04 BB/9 in 2015) and has limited the long ball (0.66 HR/9 vs. 1.18 HR/9 in 2015).
Bauer posted a 2.01 ERA and 2.64 FIP in June (18.0% K-BB%) and boasts an 8.94 K/9 rate at home (15.4% K-BB%). Cleveland is also 5-1 in Trevor Bauer’s last six starts and 5-1 in his last starts during game 1 of a series.
The Indians are a profitable 17-5 in their last 22 games versus teams with a losing record (7-0 L/7 at home), 11-2 in their last 13 games versus right-handed starters (7-1 L/8 at home), 9-0 in their last 9 against a starting pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 25-9 in their last 34 games overall.
Cleveland’s bullpen has also performed well in 2016, posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home and a 2.39 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at night. With Cleveland standing at 7-2 in the last nine meetings in this series, take the Indians behind Trevor Bauer and invest with confidence.