Baltimore right-hander Chris Tillman is 7-0 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home this season, and he is coming off the best start of the season (against the Dodgers) wherein he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings. Overall, Tillman is 11-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 2016, together with a 4.30 FIP and 4.37 SIERA.
However, Tillman boasts a 3.98 FIP and 3.82 xFIP at Camden Yards, together with a 24.3% K% (9.05 K/9) and 15.8% K-BB%. I also like the fact that the 28-year-old is a perfect 2-0 with a career 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP versus the Angels.
Tillman is also supported by a solid Baltimore bullpen that owns a 3.21 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, including a 3.01 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at home. Meanwhile, Los Angeles takes the field with a lineup that is producing just 4.5 runs in day games (12-14; -2.3 units) and 4.6 runs per game overall in 2016. Conversely, Baltimore’s attack is averaging 5.7 runs in afternoon tilts and 5.3 run per game at home this season.
The Orioles have also hit a league-best 135 home runs, setting a franchise records for the most home runs before the All-Star break. Los Angeles starter Tim Lincecum is coming off a subpar outing wherein he allowed 10 hits and five runs over 4 2/3 innings of work against the Rays on July 5.
Lincecum has failed to complete five innings in three of his four starts this season, and Camden Yards is a difficult venue for any pitcher against such a potent Baltimore lineup.
After undergoing hip surgery last September, the former Cy Young winner has allowed 29 hits in 18 innings in his comeback attempt in Anaheim. His fastball velocity is down (89 mph) and reports indicate that the 32-year-old is dealing with psychological issues based upon his downward career trajectory.
“I’m working with a (sport psychologist) right now, Tom Mitchell, who is out of the Bay Area,” Lincecum said. “I thought it was necessary. I felt like, at times, the game and the lifestyle of this game – what I was going through on the field – became a little bit overwhelming. I needed some help dealing with that, coping with things and moving on from what I’ve gone through up until this point.”
Overall, Lincecum is 1-2 with a 7.50 ERA, a 5.29 FIP and a 4.63 SIERA in 2016, together with an alarming 10% BB% and a poor 8.9% K-BB%. Let’s also note that the Angels’ bullpen owns a pedestrian 4.09 ERA this season, including a 4.80 ERA on the road, a 4.48 ERA in day games and a 4.99 ERA over its last seven games.
Technically speaking, Baltimore is 8-1 in its last nine games versus teams with a losing record, 8-2 in its last ten during game 3 of a series, 7-2 in its last 9 following a win and 37-14 in its last 51 home games, including 40-17 versus right-handed starters.
The Orioles are also 18-4 in Tillman’s last 22 starts, 21-6 in his last 27 home starts versus .499 or worse opposition and 42-18 in Tillman’s last 60 home starts overall. Take Baltimore and invest with confidence.