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Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) (-120) over Chicago Cubs

Analysis: Milwaukee applies to my best MLB system that is 143-37 straight-up and 116-64 on the run line (+13.0 ROI) since 2018, including 52-14 straight-up and 45-21 on the run line (+22.3% ROI) this season. Milwaukee also falls into my second strongest MLB system that is 160-53 straight-up and 127-86 on the run line (+8.3 ROI) since 2020.

Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser has been much better at home this season where he owns a 2.54 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Houser’s strikeout and walk rates are also better at Miller Park this season and he boasts an excellent 3.68 FIP in the second half (compared to a 4.60 FIP in the first half).

Finally, Chicago right-hander Zach Davies toes the rubber with a 5.40 ERA, 6.27 xERA and 5.42 FIP in 30 starts this season, a span covering 141.2 innings. Take Milwaukee on the run line as Oskeim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, September 17.