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Tennessee Titans (+7) (-110) over New England Patriots

Analysis: Tennessee is coming off a shocking 22-13 upset loss to Houston and will be without top wide receivers AJ Brown (chest) and Julio Jones (hamstring) in this game. However, Tennessee is 5-0 straight-up as an underdog and 4-1 ATS on the road this season, while NFL road underdogs off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite are 10-4 SU and 12-2 ATS versus opponents entering off a win by fourteen-plus points.

The Titans are 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS versus opponents coming off a double-digit win under head coach Mike Vrabel, while quarterback Ryan Tannehill is 20-12 SU and 22-10 ATS against foes coming off a double-digit win, including 19-7 ATS as an underdog. Tennessee's defense has overcome injuries and is anchored by Jeffrey Simmons, who leads the league in total pressures (49) from an interior lineman.

Three different defenders have at least 40 pressures for and the Patriots will struggle to run the ball against Tennessee's 9th-ranked rush defense. Finally, New England has played one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and my math model only favors the Patriots by 4.3 points in this game after accounting for the injuries to Brown, Jones and Derrick Henry.

Grab the points with the Titans as Oskeim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, November 28.