Los Angeles is a money-burning 5-16 in its last 21 games versus American League East opposition, 9-24 in its last 33 games versus .499 or worse foes, 2-10 in its last twelve road games versus a right-handed starter, 2-9 in its last 11 games following a loss, 6-13 in its last nineteen during game 2 of a series and 7-20 in its last 27 games overall.
Los Angeles starter Tim Lincecum toes the rubber with a 6.75 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in three starts this season, averaging less than 5 innings per outing. Those results are substantiated by a woeful 5.49 FIP, 5.17 xFIP and 5.27 SIERA, together with a pathetic 4.6% K-BB%.
Compounding problems for Lincecum is the fact that the Angels’ bullpen owns a 4.94 ERA and 1.55 WHIP on the road and a 5.62 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay turns to right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who has excelled at home where he boasts a 3.10 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 3.7 K:BB ratio in 52.3 innings (compared to 4.93 ERA, 1.43 WHIP & 2.2 K:BB on the road).
In his career, Odorizzi is nearly two runs better at home with a 2.98/4.78 home/road ERA split. The 26-year-old’s success at Tropicana Field is further supported by a 9.46 K/9 rate, 2.58 BB/9 rate, 26.8% K%, 7.3% BB% and a 19.5% K-BB%.
Odorizzi posted a solid 10.74 K/9 rate across 32.2 innings in June, but his 4.96 ERA for the month was caused, in part, by an unsustainable .338 BABIP. I also like the fact that the Rays are 10-4 in Odorizzi’s last 14 starts versus teams with a losing record and 4-0 in his last four outings during game 2 of a series.
Finally, Tampa Bay has hit 110 home runs this season, fifth best in the Majors, which is significant in that the Angels are just 15-43 in games in which they yield a home run. Take the Rays to to take Tim Lincecum deep and invest with confidence.