Oakland right-hander Jesse Chavez is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball as he toes the rubber with a 2.90 ERA and 1.14 WHIP this season, including a 1.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. More importantly, Chavez’s surface statistics are fully supported by outstanding underlying metrics:
Jesse Chavez’s 2015 Metrics:
2.93 FIP & 3.54 xFIP
3.60 SIERA (2.0 WAR)
2.55 FIP & 3.24 xFIP at home (0.25 HR/9)
While Chavez has posted a 4.88 ERA in June, he possesses a 3.65 FIP and 3.19 xFIP this month, both of which indicate that he has been pitching much better than his ERA suggests. Moreover, Chavez has been plagued by a .352 BABIP and 70.5% LOB%, both of which should regress to the mean. Oakland’s bullpen has also been excellent recently, boasting a 0.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over its last 17 innings pitched.
Chavez’s counterpart, Jeremy Guthrie, takes the mound with a 5.90 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 2015, including an 8.15 ERA and 1.84 WHIP on the road, a 7.63 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in day games and a 6.19 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over his last three starts. Guthrie is the owner of a 5.23 FIP, 5.05 xFIP and 5.15 SIERA (-0.2 WAR), together with a 5.91 FIP and 5.07 xFIP on the road. The veteran hurler is 4-5 with a career 4.62 ERA and 1.41 WHIP versus the Athletics, including yielding a combined ten runs (8 earned) on 18 hits in his last 10 2/3 innings against Oakland.
From a technical standpoint, Oakland is 10-4 in its last fourteen games versus right-handed starters, 9-4 in its last thirteen games as a favorite, 5-0 in its last five during game 3 of a series and 4-1 in Chavez’s last five starts as a favorite. The Athletics are also 11-3 in their last fourteen games with umpire Jim Reynolds behind the plate, while home teams are a profitable 20-6 over the last 26 games with Reynolds wearing the mask. Take Oakland and invest with confidence.
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