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Tuesday’s Free Premium MLB Winner: Houston at Los Angeles

Los Angeles southpaw C.J. Wilson is quietly have an excellent 2015 campaign wherein he owns a 3.39 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, including a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP at home, a 2.41 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at night, a 1.31 ERA and 0.93 WHIP versus division opponents and a 2.86 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last three starts. Wilson’s underlying metrics support is breakout season:

C.J. Wilson’s 2015 Metrics:

3.51 FIP & 3.78 xFIP
3.74 SIERA
3.24 FIP & 0.40 HR/9 at home
3.53 FIP & 2.87 xFIP in June
10.29 K/9 & 1.93 BB/9 in June

Wilson’s 3.46 FIP is his lowest since 2011 and his 1.12 WHIP is the best of his career. The veteran hurler can credit a large portion of his success to an increase in command as his 2.61 walks per nine innings is a career low. Wilson also toes the rubber in excellent form, posting a 0.60 ERA in his last two outings. The talented lefty is also backed by a solid Los Angeles bullpen that boasts a 3.05 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at night and a 1.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last seven games.

Wilson’s success should continue against a Houston lineup that is batting just .228 with a .294 on base percentage versus left-handed starters this season (3.5 runs per game). The Astros are also managing just 4.0 runs per game at night. Meanwhile, Houston right-hander Collin McHugh finds himself in terrible form with an 8.40 ERA and 1.87 WHIP in his last three outings. McHugh’s 4.42 FIP in 2015, together with a 4.37 FIP on the road and a 6.06 FIP in June suggest that his effectiveness has evaporated.

Indeed, McHugh garnered a 5.21 FIP in May (1.85 HR/9) and followed that up with a 5.26 FIP this month (2.05 HR/9). From a technical standpoint, Houston is a money-burning 3-8 in its last eight versus southpaws, 3-10 in its last thirteen road games and 3-7 in its last ten games following a loss.

Conversely, the Angels are 18-6 as home favorites, 12-5 versus right-handed starters and 7-1 at home versus teams with a winning record. Los Angeles is also 17-4 in Wilson’s last 21 home starts, including 16-3 as a home favorite and 13-1 versus teams batting .260 or worse on the season.

Take Los Angeles in this MLB clash and invest with confidence.

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