San Francisco veteran right-hander Jake Peavy toes the rubber in excellent form as evidenced by his 2.41 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over his last three outings. Peavy is also 14-3 with a career 2.50 ERA and 0.98 WHIP versus the Dodgers, while the Giants are a profitable 11-3 in Peavy’s last 14 home starts and 6-2 in his last 8 outings during game 3 of a series.
Peavy owns a 4.13 FIP at home this season (5.64 ERA) and has had better success suppressing the long ball at AT&T Park (0.89 HR/9 vs. 1.50 HR/9 away). I expect those numbers to improve following tonight’s Sunday Night Baseball affair against the Dodgers.
Peavy’s strikeout rate has also gradually increased throughout the season – 6.65 K/9 in April; 7.24 K/9 in May; and a 9.00 K/9 in June. Peavy now faces a scuffling Los Angeles lineup that is averaging 4.2 runs per game this season (.231 AVG.; .301 OBP; .658 OPS), including 3.7 runs per game at night (.223 AVG.; .295 OBP; .645 OPS) and 4.1 runs over the last seven games (.189 AVG.; .298 OBP; .650 OPS).
Meanwhile, 19-year-old phenom Julio Urias takes the mound for the Dodgers after throwing just 41.0 innings in Triple-A where he posted a 1.10 ERA and 2.88 FIP (29.7% K%; 14.3% K-BB%).
Before I continue, let’s go back to the fact that Urias is just 19 years old! One has to question how a 19-year-old (yes, a teenager) will handle the hype and pressure of a Sunday Night Baseball game versus a division rival.
When Stephen Strasburg was 19, he was pitching in the Mountain West Conference. When Jacob deGrom was that age, he was playing shortstop for Stetson University. While there is no doubting the fact that Urias possesses a legitimate plus major league arsenal, he has yielded 16 hits and nine earned runs in 11 2/3 big league innings.
He also faces a San Francisco squad that is 18-4 in its last 22 division games, 13-3 in its last 16 games versus starting pitchers with a WHIP exceeding 1.30 and 20-8 in its last 28 games overall. With San Francisco standing at 12-4 in its last 16 home games in this series, take the Giants in this Sunday Night Baseball clash and invest with confidence.