San Diego right-hander Colin Rea owns a 4.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season, including a 4.46 ERA and 1.16 WHIP within the friendly confines of PETCO Park. The young MLB hurler also owns a 4.39 FIP, 4.71 xFIP, 4.81 SIERA, 16.2% K%, 9.2% BB% and a 7.0% K-BB%. Rea posted a 5.32 xFIP in the month of May and currently has a 4.39 xFIP at home.
Rea finds little support in a bad San Diego bullpen that owns 4.70 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 2016, including posting a 4.98 ERA and 1.39 WHIP at home and a 4.28 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at night.
Miami sends Wei-Yin Chen to the mound, who is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the road. Chen’s MLB metrics are nothing to get overly excited about – 4.24 FIP, 4.09 xFIP and 4.11 SIERA, but his 3.53 xFIP away from home supports our MLB investment on the Marlins.
Chen garnered a 3.86 FIP in the month of May with a solid 8.36 K/9 rate (15.5% K-BB%). The southpaw should have success against a scuffling San Diego lineup that is averaging just 4.0 runs per game this season (.237 AVG.; .289 OBP; .663 OPS), including 3.8 runs per game at home (.233 AVG.; .286 OBP; .644 OPS).
Technically speaking, Miami is a profitable 9-2 in its last 11 MLB games versus National League West foes and 4-1 in Chen’s last five starts with four days of rest.
In contrast, the Padres are a money-burning 1-9 in their last ten MLB games versus teams with a winning record, including 1-6 at home. Take Miami in Game 1 of this series and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports’ Free MLB Sports Pick: Miami Marlins (-116)
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