Chicago right-hander Mat Latos’ house of cards has finally started to crumble as the soft-tosser has yielded 23 earned runs on 45 hits in his last 31 2/3 innings of work. Latos owns a 5.06 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in five evening starts and a 4.08 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in five home starts in 2016.
Latos’ underlying metrics match the regression of his surface statistics: 5.29 FIP, 5.29 xFIP, 5.30 SIERA, 4.98 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9 and a 4.1% K-BB%. In the month of May, the 28-year- old posted a woeful 6.41 ERA, 6.31 FIP and a 5.47 xFIP.
Meanwhile, Washington right-hander Joe Ross has been a pleasant surprise this season, garnering a 2.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over ten starts. Ross also owns a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the road, a 2.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at night and a 2.29 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last three outings.
Ross toes the rubber knowing that first baseman Ryan Zimmerman has been reinstated from paternity leave and is expected to be back in the lineup tonight.
Technically speaking, the White Sox are a money-burning 5-16 in their last 21 games overall, including 2-7 in their last nine games versus teams with a winning record, 1-9 in their last ten versus right-handed starters and 1-8 in their last nine following a loss.
In contrast, Washington is a profitable 39-19-1 in its last 58 games following a day off, 7-2 in its last nine games versus American League Central foes, 8-3 in its last 11 road games and 5-0 in its last five road games versus teams with a winning home record.
With Washington standing at 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, take the Nationals and take advantage of Mat Latos’ regression and invest with confidence.