The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Wednesday’s MLB games. Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge you need.
St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (-175)
Analysis: St. Louis falls into very negative 20-114 and 16-102 systems that invest against National League road underdogs priced between +175 and +250 with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.00 or better versus National League opponents with starting pitchers with an ERA is 3.70 or better. The Cardinals also apply to negative 12-74 and 11-69 systems that invest against National League underdogs priced between +175 and +250 with starting pitchers whose ERA is 3.00 or better versus teams with starting pitchers who allow 0.5 home runs or less per start.
Since June 1, 2019, the Braves are 44-17 (+12.3% ROI) straight-up and 31-29 (+9.8% ROI) against the run line as home favorites of -131 or greater versus opponents with a worse winning percentage, including 10-1 SU and 8-3 RL in the last eleven circumstances. Since June 9, 2019, Atlanta is 20-4 (+40.0% ROI) straight-up with Max Fried on the mound if the Braves scored more than six runs in his previous start. This situation is a perfect 4-0 straight-up and against the run line since July 24, 2021.
Fried is a perfect 3-0 with a 0.46 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in three career starts against the Cardinals, while the Braves are 8-1 in this series over the last three seasons. Finally, Fried is 18-2 (+14.9 units) at home with a total between 8 and 8.5 runs over the last three seasons. Take the Braves and invest with confidence.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) (-175)
Analysis: Since September 24, 2020, the Dodgers are 52-9 (+20.8% ROI) straight-up and 44-17 (+33.3% ROI) against the run line following a home game versus starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.01 or worse. Colorado right-hander Jose Urena is a prime regression candidate based on his 6.32 xERA, 5.98 FIP and 6.28 SIERA, all of which undermine is misleading 3.52 ERA. IN 26 appearances (18 starts) last season for the Tigers, Urena posted a 5.81 ERA, 5.84 xERA, 5.02 FIP and 5.06 SIERA across 100.2 innings of work.
Finally, Los Angeles falls into a very good MLB system that is 280-93 (+6.2% ROI) straight-up and 209-164 (+2.4% ROI) against the run line since 2020. This situation is 253-83 (+6.2% ROI) straight-up and 191-145 (+3.7% ROI) against the run line since March 27, 2021. Take the Dodgers and invest with confidence.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-210)
Analysis: Since July 8, 2017 (in pre-All-Star games), favorites of -140 or greater in game 2 of a series are 80-26 (+15.7% ROI) straight-up and 55-51 (+6.1% ROI) against the run line following a game as home favorites with starting pitchers who won their previous outing (and never trailed in the win). This situation is 38-11 (+19.8% ROI) straight-up and 30-19 (+27.4% ROI) against the run line since 2020, including 14-2 SU in its last sixteen circumstances. Since 2018, Philadelphia starting pitcher Aaron Nola is 18-3 (+33.7% ROI) straight-up and 14-7 (+41.5% ROI) against the run line as a home favorite of -140 or greater following an outing in which he had more strikeouts than hits allowed.
Finally, Nola toes the rubber with a 3.13 ERA, 2.83 xERA, 2.94 FIP and 2.79 SIERA in sixteen starts this season (103.2 IP). The 29-year-old boasts a 10.16 K/9 rate and posted a 2.51 ERA and 2.37 FIP in the month of June (43.0 IP). Take Philadelphia and invest with confidence.
Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-1.5) (-130)
Analysis: Since August 4, 2020, Houston starting pitcher Cristian Javier is 15-5 (+28.2% ROI) straight-up and 10-8 (+18.7% ROI) against the run line following an outing in which he averaged 3.9 or more pitches per batter. Since August 10, 2021, non-divisional underdogs versus opponents on a four-game winning streak are 9-30 straight-up if the total is between 8.0-9.5 and the line is greater than the previous matchup.
Finally, Houston falls into a very good MLB system that is 280-93 (+6.2% ROI) straight-up and 209-164 (+2.4% ROI) against the run line since 2020. This situation is 253-83 (+6.2% ROI) straight-up and 191-145 (+3.7% ROI) against the run line since March 27, 2021. Take the Astros and invest with confidence.
Additional Betting Trends for Wednesday, July 6
- Since 2016, road favorites of -200 or greater are 360-129 (+6.4% ROI) straight-up and 301-189 (+5.2% ROI) against the run line.
- Since August 22, 2018, the New York Yankees are 28-9 (75.7%) OVER in game 2 of a series following a game as road favorites versus an opposing starting pitcher with an ERA greater than 3.50 on the season.
- Since August 1, 2018, the Colorado Rockies are 17-2 (89.5%) OVER as road underdogs of +121 or more in the final game of a series with a starting pitcher who lasted fewer than four innings in his previous outing.
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