The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Thursday’s MLB games. Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge.
Houston Astros (-174) at Cleveland Guardians
Analysis: Since 2022, non-divisional road favorites are 88-42 (+15.3% ROI) straight-up and 72-58 (+15.2% ROI) against the run line in games with a total of eight runs or less. Houston is supported by very good 702-356 and 366-173 systems that have both been profitable against the run line since 2017. Since July 8, 2021, favorites coming off consecutive H2H wins with a starting pitcher who won his last H2H matchup are 21-2 straight-up on Thursdays if the line is shorter or equal to the starter’s previous start and the total is not eight. Since August 1, 2021, road favorites off a loss are 32-9 straight-up in game 1 of a series with a starter who had more than 5 strikeouts and gave up less than 3 runs in their last H2H matchup.
Since August 22, 2019, the Astros are 20-1 straight-up and 19-2 against the run line when their starting pitcher enters off a win and the total is not nine. This situation is 18-0 straight-up and 16-2 against the run line if the odds are shorter than +115. This season, road favorites on Thursdays are 17-4 straight-up when the total is lower than the previous game. This situation is 12-0 straight-up and 10-2 against the run line if the line is shorter than the previous matchup. Take Houston and invest with confidence.
Tampa Bay Rays (-171) at Detroit Tigers
Analysis: Since July 26, 2018, the Rays are 15-0 straight-up and 14-1 (+99.0% ROI) against the run line as road favorites following a home game in which they used five or more pitchers. This situation is 14-0 against the run line since July 27, 2018. Since July 24, 2019, the Rays are 14-1 (+54.7% ROI) straight-up and +10.0% ROI against the run line as favorites following a game as home underdogs in which they had more strikeouts than hits. Since 2022, non-divisional road favorites are 88-42 (+15.3% ROI) straight-up and 72-58 (+15.2% ROI) against the run line in games with a total of eight runs or less. Take Tampa Bay and invest with confidence.
Totals Alert: Since July 26, 2018, the Rays are 12-4 (75%) UNDER against the run line as road favorites following a home game in which they used five or more pitchers.
Chicago White Sox (-126) at Texas Rangers
Analysis: Since May 1, 2019, the White Sox are 75-29 (+14.3% ROI) straight-up and 59-44 (+19.8% ROI) against the run line as favorites of -125 or more following a game in which they scored in two or fewer separate innings. Since September 13, 2019, the White Sox are 15-4 (+50.4% ROI) straight-up and against the run line (+53.2% ROI) in road openers following a game in which they allowed six or fewer hits.
Since September 28, 2017, the Rangers are 5-18 (-53.4% ROI) straight-up and 6-17 (-50.4% ROI) against the run line in the first game of a series (unrested) following a home game in which they hit more than one home run. Finally, Chicago falls into very good 230-134 and 181-114 systems that have both been profitable against the run line. Take the White Sox and invest with confidence.
Additional Betting Trends for Thursday, August 4
- Since 2009, favorites of -200 or greater in the last game of a series are 34-0 straight-up following a loss in which they blew a lead. Teams in this spot have won by an average of 2.47 runs per game and have covered the run line in five straight contests.
- Since May 1, 2021, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 23-0 straight-up and 17-6 (+42.1% ROI) against the run line as favorites of -130 or more following a win in which they scored three runs or less.
- Since September 9, 2021, teams coming off an over and loss are 20-4 OVER in non-divisional affairs played on Thursdays if the total is higher than eight and the line is shorter than +175.
- This season, divisional road underdogs following an under and a win of two-plus runs are 2-15 straight-up in day games.
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