Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report for Sunday, June 19

Jun 19, 2022

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The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Sunday’s MLB games. Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge you need.

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners (-153)

Analysis: Since July 24, 2019, the Mariners are 21-5 (+53.9% ROI) straight-up and 15-11 (+15.1% ROI) against the run line following a game as home favorites in which they issued one or fewer walks. Los Angeles falls into a very negative 17-60 system that invests against certain road teams batting .215 or worse over their last fifteen games versus a starting pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.00 or better over his previous five outings. This situation is 44-11 (+27.8 units) over the last three seasons when fading the road team.

Finally, Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert toes the rubber with a 2.22 ERA and 3.02 FIP in thirteen starts this season (77.0 IP). With Los Angeles standing at 6-23 in its last 29 games, including 3-13 in its last sixteen road affairs, take the Mariners and invest with confidence.

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 8.5 runs (-110)

Analysis: Since September 4, 2017, San Francisco starter Alex Cobb is 13-0 OVER as a favorite following a start in which he pitched more than 5.0 innings. My only concern with taking the over with Cobb is the fact that he’s a prime regression candidate. Specifically, Cobb has a 5.73 ERA in eight starts this season (37.2 IP), but his underlying peripherals suggest better days are ahead for the veteran hurler.

Specifically, Cobb owns a 2.06 xERA, 2.63 FIP, and 2.37 xFIP, together with a 2.67 SIERA. However, Cobb is 15-3 OVER as a favorite and 9-1 in day games over the last two seasons. Finally, Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in two career starts against the Giants. Take the over and invest with confidence.

San Diego Padres (-132) at Colorado Rockies

Analysis: Since August 19, 2007, the Padres are 17-1 (+50.4% ROI) straight-up and 14-4 (+69.6% ROI) against the run line as favorites of -131 or greater in the last game of a series following a one-run loss. San Diego applies to a very good 94-49 (+45.1 units) system that invests on certain road teams with a bullpen WHIP of 1.15 or better versus teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or worse. This situation is a profitable 9-3 (+5.1 units) this season. Finally, San Diego right-hander Blake Snell is 2-0 with a 3.34 ERA in six career starts against the Rockies. Take San Diego and invest with confidence.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets UNDER 7 runs (-115)

Analysis: Since August 1, 2019, the Marlins are 10-0 UNDER with Sandy Alcantara on the mound if he threw more than 104 pitches in his previous start. Alcantara toes the rubber with a 1.68 ERA, 2.56 xERA, and 2.96 FIP in thirteen starts this season, a span of 91 1/3 innings of work. The 26-year-old keeps the ball both on the ground (53.6% GB%) and inside the park (0.39 HR/9). The talented right-hander owns a 2.82 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in ten career starts against the Mets, including limiting New York to just one run on four hits with 14 strikeouts across 9.0 innings on September 8, 2021.

Over the last two seasons, Alcantara is 15-1 UNDER versus divisional opponents, 17-3 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or less, and 9-0 UNDER in June affairs. Take the under and invest with confidence.