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Minnesota Twins (-125) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Analysis: Since August 27, 2010, the Twins are 16-1 (+60.9% ROI) straight-up and 12-4 (+53.2% ROI) against the run line as road favorites in series openers following a road affair. Since July 5, 2010, the Twins are 21-5 (+37.1% ROI) straight-up and 15-10 (+24.7% ROI) against the run line as road favorites following a game as road favorites that was decided by five or more runs.
Since April 28, 2021, the Diamondbacks are a money-burning 48-117 (-27.4% ROI) straight-up as underdogs. Arizona falls into a very negative 10-30 system that invests against certain National League home teams with an OBP of .300 or worse versus American League starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or better. The foregoing situation is 20-6 (+14.7 units) over the last three seasons when bettors fade the National League team in these circumstances.
My only concern is with Minnesota southpaw Devin Smeltzer, who is a prime regression candidate. Smeltzer has a .194 BABIP leading to his 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The 26-year-old’s pedestrian 4.2 K/9 rate, 2.4 BB/9 rate, and 46% GB% put his ERA estimators in the 5.00 range. However, Arizona southpaw Madison Bumgarner toes the rubber with a 5.03 FIP (6.3 K/9, 3.08 BB/9), which undermines his 3.50 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.
Bumgarner is also saddled with an Arizona bullpen ranked 26th in the majors in FIP (4.28) and 28th in xFIP (4.49). Take Minnesota and invest with confidence.
Philadelphia Phillies (-183) at Washington Nationals – Game 1 of doubleheader
Analysis: Since 2016, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 353-124 (+6.9% ROI) straight-up and 294-182 (+5.7% ROI) against the run line. Since 2013, divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 397-164 (+8.2% ROI) straight-up and 315-245 (+4.0% ROI) against the run line. Since April 18, 2017, home underdogs of +170 or less (Washington) with starting pitchers who lasted fewer than four innings in their previous outing (and the bullpen yielded two or more runs in the game) are a money-burning 3-29 (-74.5% ROI) straight-up and 7-25 (-53.9% ROI) against the run line.
Washington right-hander Joan Adon lasted just three innings in his last start on June 7, allowing 8 runs (8 ER). Adon toes the rubber with a 6.95 ERA and 5.63 FIP in twelve starts this season, a span covering 55.2 innings of work. The 23-year-old lacks command and control (5.66 BB/9), which is not good against a Philadelphia offense ranked 11th in the majors in walk rate (8.4% BB%). Take Philadelphia and invest with confidence.
Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
Analysis: Since September 24, 2020, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 65-21 (+15.5% ROI) straight-up and 55-33 (+21.0% ROI) against the run line following a home game versus starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.00 or worse on the season. Los Angeles also falls into one of my best MLB systems which is a profitable 382-118 (+10.2% ROI) straight-up and 293-204 (+10.3% ROI) against the run line since 2017. Finally, Los Angeles southpaw Clayton Kershaw is 4-1 with a 2.12 ERA, 2.70 FIP and 2.74 xFIP in six starts this season (34.0 IP). Take the Dodgers on the run line and invest with confidence.
Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 runs
Analysis: Minnesota southpaw Devin Smeltzer is a prime regression candidate. Smeltzer has a .194 BABIP leading to his 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The 26-year-old’s pedestrian 4.2 K/9 rate, 2.4 BB/9 rate, and 46% GB% put his ERA estimators in the 5.00 range. Arizona southpaw Madison Bumgarner toes the rubber with a 5.03 FIP (6.3 K/9, 3.08 BB/9), which undermines his 3.50 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Bumgarner is also saddled with an Arizona bullpen ranked 26th in the majors in FIP (4.28) and 28th in xFIP (4.49). Since April 5, 2021, the Twins are 21-10 OVER following a game as favorites in which they allowed six or fewer hits. Take the over and invest with confidence.