The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Monday’s MLB games. Oskeim’s MLB Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge you need.
Miami Marlins (-105) at Washington Nationals
Analysis: Since June 17, 2021, road favorites in games with a total of 8 runs or more are 22-3 straight-up versus an opponent they beat last time (and had between 4 and 9 hits). Since September 17, 2021, road favorites with starting pitchers who lost their previous outing are 61-29 (+15.9% ROI) straight-up and 51-39 (+18.0% ROI) against the run line if they defeated the opponent in their previous matchup. Since July 1, 2021, Washington starting pitcher Patrick Corbin is 2-15 (-70.9% ROI) straight-up and 4-13 (-59.4% ROI) against the run line as an underdog of +183 or less (or a favorite) following an outing in which he allowed five runs or less.
Washington slugger Juan Soto left Sunday’s 7-4 loss to the Marlins with a left calf injury. According to the team, Soto was undergoing an MRI after the game to determine the extent of the injury. “We’ll reevaluate him and see what’s going on,” manager Dave Martinez said. Finally, Miami is a profitable 14-3 (+10.0 units) versus National League opponents that are allowing five or more runs per game this season. Take the Marlins and invest with confidence.
Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-1.5) (-115)
Analysis: Since September 1, 2012, the Kansas City Royals are 21-89 (-44.2% ROI) straight-up and 44-67 (-21.1% ROI) against the run line as underdogs of +170 or greater following a game as underdogs in which they had more than three hits, including at least one home run. This situation is 17-3 straight-up and 14-6 against the run line since 2021. Since August 10, 2021, non-divisional underdogs are 8-33 straight-up versus opponents that have won their last four games if the total is between 8.0-9.5 and the line is greater than their last matchup.
The Astros are 8-2 in their last ten games over which time they have outscored opponents by 29 runs. Kansas City has been outscored by 13 runs in its last ten games. Finally, Houston falls into a very good MLB system that is 278-93 (+6.0% ROI) straight-up and 208-163 (+3.0% ROI) against the run line since 2020. Take the Astros and invest with confidence.
Additional Betting Trends for Monday, July 4
- Since June 17, 2016, Los Angeles starting pitcher Julio Urias is 14-1 (+40.0% ROI) straight-up and 8-5 (+18.3% ROI) against the run line as a home favorite following an outing in which he averaged four or more pitches per batter.
- Colorado starter Kyle Freeland is 15-2 UNDER in seventeen career outings against the Dodgers and 25-4 UNDER as a road underdog of +141 or greater.
- Since June 26, 2016, Chicago starting pitcher Johnny Cueto is 10-1 OVER in home games following an outing in which he allowed seven or more runs.
- Since September 10, 2020, Texas starting pitcher Dane Dunning is 1-18 (-89.3% ROI) straight-up and 7-12 (-32.0% ROI) against the run line on the road following an outing in which he had five or more strikeouts.
- Since August 12, 2018, the Cincinnati Reds are 2-14 (-66.6% ROI) straight-up as home underdogs following a come-from-behind win.
- Since April 17, 2022, the Oakland Athletics are 0-13 (-100.0% ROI) straight-up and 5-7 (-7.0% ROI) against the run line as underdogs of more than +160.
- This season, home favoring off a loss and back-to-back unders are 17-4 straight-up if they held a lead in the previous game.
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