Texas A&M is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS this season and takes the field fresh off a bye, whereas Alabama is coming off an emotional (and season-saving) 27-14 win over Arkansas last Saturday. This game pits strength against strength as the Aggies are averaging 39.2 points per game and 480 total yards at 6.5 yards per play, whereas Alabama is allowing just 15.7 points per game and 264 total yards at 4.0 yards per play.
While Texas A&M possesses an explosive offense that is averaging 12.3 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow just 15.5 yards per point, the Aggies also own a vastly improved stop unit under first-year defensive coordinator John Chavis. Chavis spent the last six years serving as LSU’s defensive coordinator before arriving in College Station in the offseason. Under Chavis’ leadership, the Aggies are allowing just 5.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yards per play against mediocre defensive squads.
Being 0.6 yards per play better than average defensively is certainly good enough to contain an Alabama attack that has been 0.6 yards per play better than average in 2015 (5.7 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yards per play). From a situational standpoint, Texas A&M is hell-bent on avenging last year’s humiliating 59-0 defeat at Alabama, and there is no better place to get that revenge than at Kyle Field before the 12th Man.
Technically speaking, college football home underdogs with both rest and revenge are a profitable 38-15 ATS when getting four or more points versus a .999 or worse opponent off a double-digit win. With Alabama standing at 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as conference favorites of less than ten points, take the Aggies plus the points as Oskeim Sports’ free pick.
College Football Games Attracting Sharp Money:
- Florida Atlantic
- Air Force
- Virginia Tech
- Ohio State
- Arizona State
Of course, professional bettors got the best of the number in each of the above games, whereas the betting public has chased the steam and settled upon a bad (-EV) line. The betting public is also favoring a rare underdog today – Michigan State – who faces off against the Wolverines in Ann Arbor this afternoon.
While Michigan has attracted a lot of sharp money, I know of several outfits that moved on Michigan State at +8 or better. Michigan backers came in strong at -6.5 or -7 at the outset. From a value standpoint (based upon Oskeim Sports’ math model), the games listed above that have the most value are both Louisville and Florida.