Free College Football Sports Pick: Kansas State at Texas

Oct 22, 2015


We are getting a tremendous amount of value on Kansas State based upon the team’s disparate results over the last couple of weeks.  Texas shocked Oklahoma 24-17 as 16-point underdogs prior to its bye week, whereas the Wildcats are coming off an embarrassing 55-0 loss to the same Oklahoma squad.

Amateur sports bettors generally overreact to short-term variance and only like to remember what they saw last (or what happened last).  And, what they saw last was Texas pull an epic upset over the Sooners, while Kansas State was humiliated in front of its home crowd.

Kansas State takes the field with a subpar offense that is averaging 30.3 points and 325 total yards per game at 4.9 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play.  Kansas State’s attack is successful at controlling the clock (32:38 time of possession) and it’s relatively efficient, averaging 10.7 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow 13.4 yards per point.

The Wildcats’ offense has been productive on the road this season, averaging 32.0 points and 384 total yards per game at 5.7 yards per play and 12.0 yards per point.  Kansas State has also controlled the clock away from home (34:49 time of possession) and is averaging 9.4 yards per pass play.

The Wildcats’ should have success moving the ball against a poor Texas stop unit that is yielding 34.7 points and 469 total yards per game in 2015.  Even more alarming is the fact that the Longhorns are giving up 34.3 points and 468 total yards per game at home.

Let’s also note that opposing quarterbacks are completing 67.5% of their pass attempts at 8.5 yards per pass play against the Longhorns’ porous secondary.   Kansas State possesses a decent stop unit that is allowing 5.8 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yards per play.

However, the Wildcats’ defense has excelled on foreign soil where they have allowed just 19.5 points and 5.0 yards per play this season.  The strength of Kansas State’s defense is its secondary, which has been 0.7 yards per pass play better than average (7.6 yards per pass play to teams that combine to average 8.3 yards per pass play).

Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, I don’t see Texas having much success moving the chains against a solid Kansas State stop unit.  What makes the Wildcats a good sports pick is the favorable technical analysis.  Kansas State is 9-1 ATS after allowing more than 35 points, while head coach Bill Snyder is 27-8 ATS off back-to-back losses (the last defeat by double-digits).

Kansas State is also 18-1 ATS as a conference underdog off a SU and ATS loss under coach Snyder, including going a perfect 17-0 ATS in its last 17 in this scenario.  Finally, coach Snyder is a perfect 12-0 ATS off a loss of 28 or more points during his tenure in Manhattan.  Take Kansas State plus the points as Oskeim Sports’ free sports pick.

Free College Football Sports Pick: Kansas State (+7)