NFL Betting Preview & Free Pick: Kansas City at San Francisco

Oct 23, 2022

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Oskeim Sports gives a detailed NFL betting preview and free pick in Sunday’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.  Jeff Keim was 4-1 in college football on Saturday and has produced 63.2% documented winners in the NFL this season!  On Sunday, Jeff is featuring his One and Only NFL Favorite of the Year!

Kansas City is looking to avoid consecutive losses for only the fourth time since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018.  Sunday will be Mahomes’ 70th career regular-season game and he already owns the most pass yards (20,727) and touchdown passes (168) for any player through the first 70 games in NFL history.  Kansas City fans will be happy to learn that the Chiefs have covered the past six meetings in this series (since 2002) and are 25-11-1 ATS in competitively-priced games (i.e., +3 to -3) under head coach Andy Reid, including 9-3-1 ATS with Mahomes under center.  Mahomes is 16-5-1 ATS as a favorite of three points or less and 13-3-1 ATS when he’s not at least a 3.5-point favorite, winning eight of his last ten.

NFL Betting Preview: Mahomes vs. San Francisco’s Defense

Mahomes has a favorable matchup against San Francisco’s elite defense.  Specifically, the 49ers play zone coverage 84% of the time and Mahomes averages 9.0 yards per pass attempt with a 79% completion percentage against zone.  San Francisco is fourth in the NFL in generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, but Mahomes leads the NFL in touchdowns per pass attempt when under pressure.  Mahomes is 8-1 straight-up on the road following a loss, including a perfect 6-0 since 2019.

NFL Betting Preview: San Francisco’s Injury Status

After ending last week with 11 of a possible 22 offensive and defensive starters dealing with some type of injury, the 49ers will welcome back at least four starters for Sunday’s game against Kansas City.  Defensive end Nick Bosa (groin) and left tackle Trent Williams (ankle), both practiced all week and headline the returning starters.  “I feel really good,” Bosa said. “I’m pretty optimistic.”  Defensive back Jimmie Ward (broken left hand) and right tackle Mike McGlinchey (calf) are also expected to be in uniform on Sunday, as is reserve tight end Tyler Kroft (knee).

Cornerback Charvarius Ward (groin) and strong safety Talanoa Hufanga (concussion) participated on a limited basis in Friday’s practice, and both have a chance of playing against the Chiefs.  Of the injured Niners on the active roster, only defensive lineman Arik Armstead (foot, ankle) has been ruled out for this week.  San Francisco’s defense is ranked third in DVOA and has been the best unit in the league when healthy.

NFL Betting Preview: Jimmy Garoppolo Against the Vegas Number

San Francisco is 37-18 SU and 31-23-1 ATS with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, compared to just 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS with all other quarterbacks in that span. Garoppolo is 14-6 SU and 16-4 ATS in his career as an underdog, both of which are the best marks of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era with at least fifteen starts as an underdog.  Garoppolo is 19-8 SU and ATS versus .501 or greater opposition, which is the most profitable mark among quarterbacks since 2017 against teams with a winning record.  Garoppolo has lost a start four times by double-digits – the 49ers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their next game.

In games with a total of 50 points or less, Garoppolo is 10-3 SU and 12-1 ATS as an underdog.  He is also 3-0 SU and ATS as a home underdog with the 49ers.  San Francisco is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a loss and has covered six straight at home.  Head coach Kyle Shanahan is 14-6 ATS as an underdog with a win percentage of .333 or more, including 6-0 ATS versus .714 or worse opponents.

Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its past six games as a favorite, including 0-3 ATS in its past three.  The Chiefs are also 8-18 ATS as favorites off one loss-exact versus opponents coming off a loss, including 3-14 ATS against avenging foes.  Teams after playing Buffalo are just 15-23 ATS the following week since 2020, failing to cover 11 of the last 14 games in this spot.

Be sure to check back daily for more NFL betting previews and free sports picks.

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