Oregon State at Washington (-13.5)
Beavers
• Enter off 38-28 loss to Washington St. in season-opener
• Outgained 7.3 yards per play to 5.6 yards per play
• Offense lacks firepower; 9% explosive plays
Young & Inexperienced
• HC Jonathan Smith has improved win total each season
• 84th in returning production (58%)
• Lose LY’s starting QB & top RB
Technical Trends
• 18-5 ATS on road under HC Smith
• 8-1 ATS as conference dog off upset loss
• 6-0 ATS as conference road dogs LY
Huskies
• Last week’s opener vs. Cal canceled due to COVID-19
Young & Lack Continuity
• New HC in Jimmy Lake (Chris Petersen’s hand-picked successor)
• 104th in returning production (52%)
QB Uncertainty
• Depth chart lists 4 co-starters
Technical Trends
• 8-0 SU & 7-3 ATS in series; winning by an avg 25 ppg
• Visitor is 6-1 SU L/7 meetings; 5 straight covers
• 6-1 ATS L/7 home openers
• 4-1 ATS as home favorite LY; outscored foes by 13 ppg
Math favors Washington by 14.5 points
UNLV at San Jose State (-15.5)
Rebels
• Enter off 40-27 loss to Fresno State
• Lost 10 pts to turnover luck
• 29% passing success rate; 41% rush success rate
• 0-3 SU & ATS on year
• -157 yards per game on season
Technical Trends
• 13-4 ATS L/17 as road dogs of 14+ pts
• 2-7 ATS MWC road dog L/2 years
Spartans
• Enter off 28-17 upset win over San Diego St (10 pt dogs)
• Outgained 362 to 291 yards; +2 turnover margin
• 10 points from turnover luck; 3 4th quarter turnovers
Quarterback Injury
• Starting QB Nick Starkel injured on first possession
• Did not return & ?? for Saturday’s game
• Backup QB Nick Nash threw 2 TDs & rushed for another
Fast Start
• 3-0 start for first time since 1982
• One of 4 teams to start 3-0 SU & ATS
Winning with Defense
• Holding foes to 113 yards per game under season average
• +66 yards per game overall this season
Technical Trends
• 3-0 SU & ATS teams are 6-18-1 ATS in Game 4 vs. foes off loss, including 1-12 ATS in conference gms
• 3-0 ATS as MWC home favorite under HC Brennan
• 5-2 SU & ATS L/7 meetings in series
• Home team 5-1 ATS L/6 in series
Math favors San Jose State by 16.01 points
Hawaii at San Diego State (-11)
Rainbows
• Enter off 39-33 win over New Mexico (failed to cover)
• QB Chevan Cordeiro accounted for 5 TDs
Situational Disadvantage
• Traveling for the 3rd time in four weeks
Technical Trends
• 2-8 ATS L/10 as DD conference dog
• 3-14 ATS L/17 vs foes off upset loss; 0-10 ATS when off win
• 3-6-1 ATS off a win L/2 years
Aztecs
• Enter off 28-17 upset loss to San Jose State
• 18-5-1 ATS in this series, including 8-1 ATS off loss
Defense
• Ranked 2nd nationally in Total Defense (allowing 233 ypg)
• Holding foes to 106 ypp under season average
Ball Control
• Powerful ground attack w/ RB Greg Bell (100+ yds all 3 gm)
• Hawaii allowing 227 rushing yards per game at 5.1 ypc
Colorado at Stanford (-7)
Buffaloes
• Enter off 48-42 upset win over UCLA
• Benefitted from turnover luck (+4 turnover margin)
• Average TD drive was 42 yards!
Starting QB Played Defense Last Year
• Graduate senior Sam Noyer played safety LY
• Left program but was re-recruited by new coaching staff
• Threw for 257 yards at 7.9 yards per attempt
Technical Trends
• 1-13 ATS after scoring 35+ pts vs. foe off SU & ATS loss
• 9-19-1 ATS vs. Pac-12 foes
• 1-5-1 ATS L/7 as road dogs
Cardinal
• Enter off 35-14 loss at Oregon
• Misleading final score
• Only outgained 7.5 yards per play to 7.2 yards per play
• QB Mills & #1 WR Wedington held out due to COVID-19
• Both are ?? this week
• Placekicker missed 4 FGs – 48, 41, 35 & 27 yards
Improved This Season
• 28th in nation in returning production (73%)
• 16 returning starters
• Will be vastly improved
• One of best OL in nation
Technical Trends
• HC David Shaw 9-0 SU in home openers; avg. win by 24 ppg
UTEP at UTSA (-7)
Miners
• Last played Oct. 24; 38-28 loss to Charlotte
• 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS this season
• Lost 2 straight; covered 3 straight
• 3-1 ATS as road dog this season
Defense
• Top-20 ranked defense
• Top -20 run defense
• UTSA only averaging 203 passing yards/game (bottom 50)
RoadRunners
• Last played Oct. 10/31
• Lw’s game vs. Rice postponed
• Needed break after playing 8 consecutive weeks
• 4-4 SU & 4-4 ATS
• Home team is 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS in series
Competitive vs. Top Talent
• 21-13 loss at UAB as 21.5-pt. dog
• 27-20 loss at BYU as 34-pt. dog
• Upset Louisiana Tech 27-26 as 2.5-pt. dog
Math favors UTSA by 9.7 points
Baylor at Texas Tech (-1.5)
Bears
• Enter off 38-31 loss to Iowa State; lost 4 straight
Undervalued
• All 4 losses by 11 points or less
• Owns 100-yard better D
Technical Trends
• 7-2 SU L/9 meetings in series
Red Raiders
Misleading Final Score
• Enter off 34-18 loss to TCU
• D played great; limited TCU to a 29% offensive success rate
• TCU had 13 offensive drives; 3 gained more than 50 yds
• BUT still allowing 456 yards & 41 ppg to Big-12 foes
Terrrible Coaching Decision
• Down 11 with 2:44 left, TT had ball on TCU 19-yd-line
• On 2nd & 4, TT opted to kick a FG! Missed FG
Technical Trends
• Home team is 3-10 ATS in series
Coastal Carolina (-11) at Troy
Chanticleers
• Enter off 23-7 win over S. Alabama
• Limited Jaguars to just 243 yards & 2-of-14 on 3rd downs
Offense Struggled
• Averaged just 2.88 points on 8 trips inside 40-yd-line
Enjoying Record Season
• 7-0 SU & 5-1-1 ATS
• Entered 2020 having never won more than 2 conf. games
• 4th straight top-25 appearance; never ranked before
Look-Ahead
• Defending conference champ Appalachian St on deck
Trojans
• Enter off 20-13 upset loss to Georgia Southern
• 3-1 ATS L/4 vs. undefeated opponents
• QB Gunnar Watson ??? (ribs); missed last 2 games
• Backup ineffective
Math favors Coastal Carolina by 6.8 points
Army at Tulane (-5.5)
Black Knights
• Haven’t played in 3 weeks
• 6-1 but embarrassing schedule (3 wins vs. FCS foes) – MTSU, LA Monroe, Abilene Christian, The Citadel, UTSA & Mercer
• FBS opponents combined record of 6-17
• 7th ranked defense – 275 yards per game
• 2-23-1 SU & 9-17 ATS as a dog off a win
Green Wave
• Won L/2 & covered 4 straight
• 8-3 ATS L/11 meetings in series; 3-0 SU/ATS L/3
• Very good run D; limited Navy to just 3.6 ypc
• 6-1 ATS as home favorite L/2 yrs