NBA Finals Game 3 Betting Preview & Pick: Warriors vs. Celtics

Jun 8, 2022

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Jeff Keim, founder and CEO of Oskeim Sports, provides important betting information and trends for tonight’s NBA Finals Game 3 between the Warriors and Celtics.

NBA home teams are 54-35 SU and 46-42 ATS this postseason, while favorites are a profitable 61-27 SU and 51-37-1 ATS.  Since 2014, NBA playoff favorites are an impressive 320-242-9 ATS (56.9%).  Since 2013, outright winners in the NBA Finals are an incredible 42-3-2 ATS.

Since the 2003 NBA Finals, teams coming off a loss as road underdogs in Game 2 are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS as home favorites in Game 3.  Since 2012, teams that won Game 2 are just 3-6 SU and ATS in Game 3 of the NBA Finals, with all six losses coming by double-digits.

Golden State falls into a very negative 28-66 ATS system that invests against certain road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have covered the spread in 4 or 5 of their last six games provided the game involves two teams with win percentages between .600 and .750.  Fading these overvalued road underdogs has produced a net profit of +35.2 units since 2016.  This situation is a profitable 13-4 ATS (76.5%) this season.

Entering this series, Boston allowed just 106.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes this postseason, the second-best defensive rating behind Milwaukee (who played just 12 games).  Boston’s +7.4 net rating in non-garbage time was the best in the playoffs.  Boston has held opponents to just 34% on catch-and-shoot attempts this season, the second-best mark in the NBA behind Phoenix.

Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Robert Williams III have all held opposing three-point shooters to below 33% shooting when they’ve been the contesting defender.  Not surprisingly, every member of Boston’s starting five received at least one vote for Defensive Player of the Year.

The Celtics are the only team with a winning record versus the Warriors since Steve Kerr took over in 2014-15.  Since Tatum was drafted in 2017, the Celtics are 7-3 SU against the Warriors.

Boston vs. Steph Curry

Steph Curry has taken the ninth-fewest shot attempts per 100 possessions against the Celtics over the past five seasons, and the 11th fewest this season.  The Celtics have a 92.96 Contested Rate on Curry shots in that span, the fourth-best mark for any team facing him.

Boston vs. Clay Thompson

Boston has completely shut down Clay Thompson through the first two games of the NBA Finals.  Thompson is averaging 13 points on 10-of-33 shooting, including 4-of-15 from beyond the arc.  Thompson shot 1-of-13 on contested shots in Game 2 and his 30.3% shooting is his third-worst effort through the first two games of any playoff series in his career.

Boston Defines Resiliency

The Celtics are 24-13 ATS following a loss this season, including 6-0 SU and ATS this postseason.  Boston is 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS off a loss since January 29.  The Celtics have been especially good after a double-digit loss in this span, going 4-0 SU and ATS, with an average winning margin of 16.75 points.  The Warriors are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road off a win this postseason.

Betting Trends Favoring Boston

  • Since January 1, 2022, when the Celtics win, the point differential is, on average, 11.9 points higher than bookmakers projected
  • Boston is 6-0 ATS this season following a game in which Jaylen Brown shot 30% or worse from the field
  • Boston is 8-3 SU and ATS after giving up fourteen or more turnovers
  • Jayson Tatum has gone over 40.5 combined points, assists and rebounds in four of his past five games following a postseason loss
  • Golden State head coach Steve Kerr is 4-12-2 ATS in his career vs. Boston

Take the Boston Celtics in Game 3 of the NBA Finals.