National League Divisional Playoff Betting Preview & Best Bet

Oct 11, 2016

National League playoffs, National League Division Playoffs, National League Best Bet

San Francisco southpaw Matt Moore was one of the Giants’ best pitchers down the stretch, posting a 3.37 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his last three starts.  Moore limited the Rockies and Dodgers to a combined two runs over 15 2/3 innings in the final week of the regular season.

The talented lefty also posted a 3.63 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and a 3.70 FIP in the second half of the season with a slight uptick in strikeouts (8.16 K/9 vs. 8.01 K/9 in 1st half) and an improved home run rate (0.71 HR/9 vs. 1.49 HR/9 in 1st half).

Moore also performed better at home with both the Rays and Giants this season, posting a 3.36 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a 3.81 FIP in 112.1 innings of work.  He also had better numbers across the board, including a 22.4% strikeout rate and a 7.0% walk rate.  

Let’s also note that the Giants are 4-1 in Moore’s last five starts, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in his last four starts at home.  

San Francisco is a profitable 36-16 in its last 52 postseason games, including 20-8 in its last 28 playoff home games and 7-3 in its last ten divisional playoff clashes.  The Giants have won five straight home games and are the perfect team to challenge Chicago.  

For example, the Cubs possess a high-strikeout pitching staff, but San Francisco strikes out less than any other National League team.  Chicago’s pitching staff also does an excellent job in limiting home runs, but that skill set is of little value within the spacious confines of AT&T Park.  

Finally, the Cubs are extremely patient at the plate as evidenced by their 10.4% walk rate in 2016.  However, San Francisco’s pitching staff has the second-lowest walk rate in the Majors this season.

It’s also difficult to ignore the fact that the Cubs are just 6-13 in their last 19 road games versus .501 or greater opposition, 6-15 in their last 21 playoff games, 2-8 in their last ten playoff road games, 1-5 in their last six divisional playoff road games and 1-5 in their last six road affairs against left-handed starters.  John Lackey’s 4.37 ERA (3.98 FIP) on the road also instills little confidence.  

Take the Giants at plus money in tonight’s National League Divisional Playoff game and invest with confidence.