Oskeim Sports provides several free college football picks for Saturday, October 7. Be sure to check out the bonus winners at the bottom of this page.
The matchup could not be better for Rice, who possesses an excellent run defense that is 0.9 yards per play better than average (3.7 yards per rush play to teams that would combine to average 4.6 yards per rush attempt against a mediocre stop unit).
The Owls’ 35th-ranked rushing defense should easily contain an Army ground d attack that is 0.3 yards per play better than average (6.3 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yards per rush play).
Rice’s defensive advantage is enhanced by the fact that Army averages 58 rushing attempts per game compared to just six pass attempts. Therefore, the Owls’ inept secondary (1.6 yards per pass play worse than average) won’t be a factor in this game.
Meanwhile, Army is traveling for the third time in four weeks and takes the field with a subpar defense that is allowing 6.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.4 yards per play against a mediocre defense.
The Black Knights’ defense has been shredded on the road where they are yielding 29.5 points and 471 total yards per game at 7.8 yards per play. Home teams are averaging 261 rushing yards at 8.4 yards per carry against Army, while opposing quarterbacks are completing 66.1% of their passes against the Black Knights’ secondary.
The Owls’ run-heavy offense should have some success against Army’s porous front seven. As a result, Rice will win the time of possession battle and shorten the game, both of which are important when investing on a double-digit underdog.
I also like the fact that Rice has played a substantially more difficult schedule (Stanford, Houston & Pittsburgh) and has legitimate revenge following last year’s 31-14 loss, which is significant in that the Owls are a profitable 15-4-2 ATS as home underdogs with revenge.
Let’s also note that Army is a money-burning 2-17-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite and should not be laying this many points on the road to anyone. Indeed, Army failed to cover the spread as a 22.5-point home favorite against UTEP last week.
Finally, Rice is 75-48 ATS at home, including 28-13 ATS in October and 20-8 ATS after three of its last four games. With Army standing at 3-15 ATS as a road favorite since 1992, grab the points with the Owls as one of Oskeim Sports’ Free College Football Picks for Saturday, October 7.
Oskeim Sports’ Free College Football Picks:
- Rice (+12) over Army
- Boston College (+16.5) over Virginia Tech
- Utah (+5) over Stanford
Make sure you visit Oskeim’s award-winning Blog on a daily basis for more free college football picks. Oskeim’s free college football picks have a profitable win rate of 55.1% since August, 2007.