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NFL Picks: Arizona Travels to Philadelphia in Upset Special

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Philadelphia is a money-burning 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS in its last eleven games versus NFC West opposition and 10-22-1 ATS after giving up more than 350 total yards in its previous game.

Let’s also note that the Cardinals are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series and are coming off a season-saving 18-15 win over San Francisco last Sunday.

I also like the fact that Arizona head coach Bruce Arians is 19-6 SU and ATS versus teams coming off a SU and ATS win like the Eagles.

Philadelphia takes the field without its best pass rusher and several key players in its secondary, thereby allowing Carson Palmer an opportunity to find mismatches downfield.

Arizona is 0.1 yards per play worse than average from the line of scrimmage this season (0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.3 yards per play better than average defensively.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are 0.2 yards per play worse than average from the line of scrimmage (0.1 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.3 yards per play worse than average defensively.

The Eagles will struggle to run the ball against a very good Arizona front seven that is 0.7 yards per rush play better than average (3.2 yards per rush attempt to a group of quarterbacks that would combine to average 3.9 yards per rush play against a mediocre defense).

The Cardinals are also limiting opponents to a mere 79 rushing yards at 2.8 yards per carry on the road in 2017.  Arizona possesses a nominal advantage over the Eagles’ aerial attack.

While Arizona has been 0.4 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.2 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yards per play to a mediocre attack), the Cardinals should move the ball against a subpar Philadelphia stop unit.

Specifically, the Eagles are allowing 356 total yards per game at 6.5 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 6.2 yards per play against a mediocre defense.  Opposing quarterbacks are completing 66.0% of their pass attempts against the Eagles’ secondary for 7.5 yards per pass play.

My math model favors Philadelphia by 5.8 points so the line is fair but the Cardinals apply to a very good contrarian system of mine that invests on certain NFL teams that have failed to cover the spread in four or more consecutive games.

With Arizona standing at 30-13 ATS versus .751 or greater opposition since 1992, grab the points with the Cardinals as one of Oskeim Sports NFL Picks for Sunday, October 8.

Oskeim Sports’ NFL Picks for Sunday, October 8:

  • Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) 0ver Philadelphia Eagles
  • Miami Dolphins (+1) over Tennessee Titans
  • Houston Texans (+1) over Kansas City Chiefs
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