Free Basketball Pick: Northern Colorado Poised to Advance in CIT

Mar 28, 2018

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Oskeim Sports provides a free basketball pick in the College Insider Tournament semifinals game between Sam Houston State and Northern Colorado.

Oskeim recommends laying the points with Northern Colorado as his free basketball pick for Wednesday, March 28.

Northern Colorado is a profitable 13-3-1 ATS in its last seventeen non-conference affairs, 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 games following a win, 16-5-1 ATS in its last 22 games versus .501 or greater opposition and 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 games overall.

In other words, Northern Colorado remains grossly undervalued by the betting market and the Bears now host a Sam Houston State squad that is just 3-8-2 ATS in its previous thirteen clashes with .601 or greater opposition.

Northern Colorado takes the floor with a prolific offense that is averaging 80.7 points per game on 46.8 percent shooting from the field against teams that would combine to allow just 76.0 points per game to a mediocre attack.

The Bears are 12-3 SU and 8-4 ATS at home this season where they are averaging 86.6 points per game on 49.4 percent shooting from the floor and 37.6 percent from beyond the arc.  Let’s also note that the Bears have shot 49.8 percent from the field and 47.2 percent from three-point territory over their last five games.

Northern Colorado’s National Rankings:

  • #48 in points per game (79.3)
  • #71 in average scoring margin (+5.5)
  • #73 in effective FG percentage (53.4)
  • #48 in 2-point percentage (53.6)
  • #66 in shooting percentage (46.4)

The Bears have an excellent opportunity to exploit a soft Sam Houston State perimeter defense that is allowing opponents to make 40.7 percent of their three-pointers over the last five games.

Sam Houston State possesses a subpar offense that is 2.5 points per game worse than average (71.2 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 73.7 points per game to a mediocre offense).

Tonight’s venue also poses a problem for the Bearkats, who have not played in altitude this season.  Greeley, Colorado is approximately 5,000 feet above sea level and gives Northern Colorado a significant home-court advantage.

Sam Houston State may have to play tonight without guard Marcus Harris, who missed the quarterfinal matchup with Texas-San Antonio after sustaining an injury against Eastern Michigan.

The loss of Harris would be devastating against a Northern Colorado offense that excels at dribble penetration.  The backcourt combination of Andre Spight and Jordan Davis will attack the rim with ease if the Bearkats are missing Harris.

Finally, Northern Colorado was banned from postseason play last year and have been playing with a chip on their shoulders in 2017-18.

This appears to be a team on a mission in the College Insider Tournament and I expect the Bears to advance to the tournament finals with a convincing win tonight.

Lay the points with Northern Colorado as Oskeim’s free basketball pick for Wednesday, March 28.

Oskeim Sports’ Free Basketball Pick for Wednesday, March 28:

  • Northern Colorado (-10.5) over Sam Houston State

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