North Texas travels to San Francisco for Game 1 of the College Basketball Insider (CBI) Finals. Oskeim Sports gives a free winner in this game as one of his daily sports picks for Monday, March 26.
North Texas has been installed as a 5-point underdog (as of Monday afternoon) and Oskeim Sports recommends taking the points with the Mean Green as one of its daily sports picks for Monday.
North Texas appears to be a team on a mission as it has won three straight postseason affairs, all of which were by double-digit margins. The catalyst has been a potent Mean Green offense that is averaging 80.8 points on 48.4 percent shooting from the field and 42.9 percent from beyond the arc over the last five games.
The Mean Green are averaging an incredible 1.21 points per possession in the CBI Tournament due, in part, to making 40-of-83 from three-point territory.
North Texas head coach Grant McCasland has transitioned to a 4 out offense following the injury to Shane Temara. The result has been a prolific perimeter attack led by Roosevelt Smart, who is averaging 28.3 points per game in the CBI Tournament.
The Mean Green also possess a solid defensive unit that rates 2.4 points per game better than average in 2017-18 (71.4 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.8 points per game against a mediocre defense).
However, North Texas has turned its defensive intensity up a few notches in postseason play, limiting opponents to 40.6 percent shooting from the floor and 26.5 percent from three-point territory.
The Mean Green limited two very good offenses in South Dakota and Mercer to under 1-point per possession. San Francisco enters the CBI Finals with a subpar offense that is averaging just 68.9 points per game to teams that would combine to allow 71.7 points per game to a mediocre attack.
The Dons are ranked 269th in scoring offense, 228th in effective field goal percentage (49.5), 206th in two-point field goal percentage (49.0), 248th in 3-point percentage (33.4) and 172nd in average scoring margin (-0.1).
Neither team rebounds particularly well or shoots a high percentage from the charity stripe. From a technical analysis, North Texas is a profitable 8-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference affairs, 12-3 ATS in its last fifteen road tilts and 4-0 ATS in its last four road games versus teams with a winning home record.
In contrast, San Francisco is a money-burning 4-10 ATS in its last fourteen non-conference clashes, 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games following a straight-up win and 2-12 ATS in its last 14 home affairs versus teams with a .499 or worse road mark, including 1-10 ATS against .399 or worse opposition.
The Mean Green apply to a very strong 54-19 ATS system that invests against certain teams off consecutive home wins by five points or less against foes entering off back-to-back home wins by ten or more points.
North Texas also applies to a very good 41-19 ATS momentum situation that invests on certain teams coming off a win by 20+ points.
Grab the inflated number with North Texas in what could be a series sweep in the CBI Finals.
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