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I was shocked to see Oklahoma State favored in this game as both of my math models favor the Sooners by 1.3-points. This game will have major implications for both teams with respect to the Big 12 Conference championship game and the College Football Playoff.
This matchup has been described as the “Bedlam curse” by Oklahoma State fans for good reason – the Sooners have won 14 of the past fifteen meetings when both teams have been ranked.
The Cowboys have gone into Bedlam on three separate occasions with the opportunity to secure the Big 12 title; Oklahoma has walked away victorious in all three encounters. “It’s the reason the ‘Poke Choke’ term exists,” an Oklahoma State alum recently said. “What can go bad will go bad,” said Brian Denneny, who played basketball for the Cowboys. “That’s the sentiment you can feel throughout the whole fan base.”
Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS in the last twelve meetings in this series, including 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Stillwater. The Sooners are also a profitable 7-3 ATS in their last ten games following a win, 6-2 ATS in their last eight November affairs and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games with .501 or greater opposition. The Sooners also apply to a very good 28-6 ATS system that invests on certain teams off a double-digit win in competitively-priced games (+3 to -3).
Oklahoma is 2.8 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage (2.5 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.3 yards per play better than average defensively). The Sooners’ powerful ground attack rates 1.4 yards per rush play better than average and should have success against a very good Oklahoma State front seven that is 1.0 yards per play better than average against the run.
Running back Abdul Adams is fully healthy and is averaging an incredible 10.4 yards per carry this season, while backup Rodney Anderson has rushed for 328 yards at 7.6 yards per carry over the last two games. Oklahoma State has allowed three opponents this season to rush for over 200 yards and I expect the Sooners to become the fourth team in 2017 to run over the Cowboys. Overall, Oklahoma’s No. 1-ranked offense possesses a 1.4 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage over the Cowboys’ stop unit.
The Sooners own the nation’s best passing efficiency offense with the second-best completion percentage. Oklahoma has thrown just three interceptions in 257 pass attempts, the 7th-best rate in college football.
Oklahoma State also possesses an advantage on offense, but recent concerns have been raised regarding the health of quarterback Mason Rudolph. Rudolph has attempted just seven passes thrown 20 yards in the air over the last two games (9.7% of his pass attempts) compared to 17.6% in the first six games of the season.
In last week’s win over West Virginia, Rudolph had a season-low five attempts thrown at least 15 yards in the air. Grab the points with the Sooners as one of Oskeim Sports’ Daily Sports Picks for Saturday, November 4.
Daily Sports Picks for Saturday, November 4:
- Oklahoma (+3) (-120) over Oklahoma State
- Iowa State (+2.5) (-105) over West Virginia