Free Football Picks: Southern Mississippi Poised to Upset Tennessee

Nov 3, 2017

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Thank you for stopping by Oskeim Sports’ award-winning Blog where you can find free football picks on a daily basis.  One of Oskeim’s free football picks on Saturday involves the Southern Mississippi/Tennessee.

Tennessee head coach Butch Jones is on the hottest seat in college football.  The Volunteers are a disappointing 3-5 and lost their fourth consecutive game last week to Kentucky.  The Tennessee fan base is growing impatient now that Florida just made the decision to terminate its head coach.

How impatient?  Visit Twitter and check out the #EmptyNeyland campaign that is being promulgated by the Tennessee fan base.  The Volunteers are actually 0.4 yards per play worse than average from the line of scrimmage (0.3 yards per play worse than average offensively and 0.1 yards per play worse than average defensively.

The Volunteers are 0-4 ATS at home this season where they are averaging just 17.0 points and 277 total yards per game at 4.5 yards per play and 16.3 yards per point.  In its last three contests, Tennessee has averaged 14.0 points and 269 total yards at 4.4 yards per play and 19.2 yards per point.

In other words, Tennessee’s attack continues to regress and will struggle to move the ball against a Southern Mississippi stop unit that rates 0.4 yards per play better than average (5.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play against a mediocre defense.

The Golden Eagles are limiting opponents to a mere 19.0 points and 306 total yards at 4.8 yards per play and 16.1 yards per point over the last three games.  Overall, Southern Mississippi possesses a significant 0.7 yards per play advantage defensively from the line of scrimmage against the Volunteers’ anemic attack.

Southern Mississippi’s underrated status became amplified by last week’s 30-12 upset loss to UAB as double-digit favorites.  The Golden Eagles are a profitable 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference affairs, 4-0 ATS in their last four road tilts, 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit home defeat and 8-2 ATS in their last ten games overall.

The Eagles also apply to a very strong 54-22 ATS system that invests on certain college football road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite.  Southern Mississippi falls into a terrific 27-6 ATS momentum system that invests on certain teams having a lot of ATS success versus opponents that are struggling to satisfy Vegas’s expectations.

Finally, Southern Mississippi’s offense is averaging 27.4 points and 439 total yards per game at 5.9 yards per play, which matches up well against the Volunteers’ subpar stop unit.  The combination of quarterback Keon Howard and running back Ito Smith provide the Eagles with enough offense to leave Tennessee with an outright win.

Grab the points with Southern Mississippi as one of Oskeim Sports’ Free Football Picks for Saturday, November 4.  Please check back on Saturday for more free football picks from Oskeim.

Oskeim Sports’ Free Football Picks:

  • Southern Mississippi (+7)
  • New Mexico State (-9.5)