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College Football Sharp Money Report: Saturday, September 19


Throughout the course of the 2015-2016 football season, I will provide a weekly Sharp Money Report to highlight the games that are getting a lot of attention from professional bettors (i.e. sharps). The Report will also include football games that are receiving lopsided action from the betting public (i.e. squares). Please find below our first Sharp Money Report covering the college football games on Saturday, September 19:

College Football Teams Receiving Significant Professional Betting Action:

  • Rotation #126: North Carolina (-7.5)
  • Rotation #199: Air Force (+24.5)
  • Rotation #134: Syracuse (-8.5)
  • Rotation #136: Duke (-4)
  • Rotation #116: Eastern Michigan (+4.5)
  • Rotation #143: Louisiana Tech (+10)
  • Rotation #148: Navy (-4.5)
  • Rotation #156: Oklahoma State (-27)
  • Rotation #170: Arkansas (-11)
  • Rotation #184: Texas (+6)
  • Rotation #190: New Mexico State (+3)
  • Rotation #194: San Diego State (-17.5)
  • Rotation #204: UCLA (-16.5)
  • Rotation #195: Stanford (+9.5)
  • Rotation #198: Iowa (-5.5)

Of course, the professional bettors got the best of the numbers in the above-referenced games, which is what distinguishes pros from the betting public. For example, the sharps grabbed most of there games listed above at or close to their opening numbers, thereby beating the market by 1-3 points.  The teams that received the most action from the professionals are Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Syracuse, Navy and San Diego State.

College Football Teams Receiving Significant Public Betting Action:

  • Rotation #141: Rice (-7.5)
  • Rotation #144: Kansas State (-10)
  • Rotation #124: Wisconsin (-34.5)
  • Rotation#159: Georgia Tech (-2.5)
  • Rotation #188: TCU (-37)
  • Rotation #192: Penn State (-9)
  • Rotation #196: USC (-9.5)
  • Rotation #205: Utah (-14)

The betting public rarely (if ever) beats the betting market with their wagers, thereby consistently leaving them with -EV bets.  “Public” teams like Notre Dame, USC and Oregon regularly attract amateur money regardless of the point spread.  Amateur bettors like to chase the steam, meaning that they see a line moving and immediately bet into a bad number.  For example, sharps grabbed Arkansas at -9.5, but the public piggy-backed on that move and grabbed -11 to -12.