Sharps vs. Squares: College Football Market Report for September 26

Sep 26, 2015


Throughout the course of the 2015-2016 college football season, I will provide a weekly Sharp Money Report to highlight the college football games that are getting a lot of attention from professional bettors (i.e. sharps). The Report will also include football games that are receiving lopsided action from the betting public (i.e. squares). Please find below our first Sharp Money Report covering the college football games on Saturday, September 26:

College Football Teams Receiving Significant Professional Betting Action:

  • Rotation #310: Michigan (-6.5)
  • Rotation #329: Bowling Green (-3.5)
  • Rotation #342: Duke (+7.5)
  • Rotation #313: Nevada (pk)
  • Rotation #325: Virginia Tech (-10)
  • Rotation #389: Appalachian State (-8)
  • Rotation #380: Texas Tech (+5.5)
  • Rotation #377: Florida Atlantic (-10)
  • Rotation #319: Missouri (+2.5)
  • Rotation #402: Arizona (+2.5)
  • Rotation #405: Fresno State (+4.5)
  • Rotation #404: Washington (+2.5)
  • Rotation #372: Kent State (+7)

Of course, the professional bettors got the best of the numbers in the above-referenced games, which is what distinguishes pros from the betting public. For example, the sharps grabbed most of there games listed above at or close to their opening numbers, thereby beating the market by 1-3 points.

Specifically, professional bettors grabbed Michigan at -4.5, Bowling Green at +1, Texas Tech at +7 or better, Arizona at +3.5 or better, Washington at +3 or better and Kent State at +8 or better.  These +EV wagers will beat  the market over the long-term, thereby providing a solid return on investment for the pro bettor.

College Football Teams Receiving Significant Public Betting Action:

  • Rotation #341: Georgia Tech (-7.5)
  • Rotation 363: LSU (-24.5)
  • Rotation #393: Oklahoma State (-3)
  • Rotation #379: TCU (-5.5)
  • Rotation #403: California (-2)
  • Rotation #355: Texas A&M (-7)
  • Rotation #367: North Carolina State (-17.5)

The betting public rarely (if ever) beats the betting market with their wagers, thereby consistently leaving them with -EV bets. “Public” teams like Notre Dame, USC and Oregon regularly attract amateur money regardless of the point spread. Amateur bettors also like to chase the steam, meaning that they see a line moving and immediately bet into a bad number.  From the college football teams listed above, the public is most heavily invested on Oklahoma State, California and Texas A&M.