Game: Detroit Tigers at Baltimore Orioles
Time: 7:05p.m. ET
Starting Pitchers: Casey Mize vs. Keegan Akin
Odds: Tigers -101, Orioles -109
The Baltimore Orioles are one of the worst teams in baseball. One of the big reasons why is their pitching staff. Baltimore has the worst overall ERA in MLB (5.63). It doesn’t get any better tonight when the Orioles face Detroit at home.
Keegan Akin has been asked by Baltimore to be a starter as well as pitch out of the bullpen. He has not done well in either situation. As a starter, Akin has been a bigger disaster than a reliever. Overall for the season, Akin is 0-5 with a 7.66 ERA. As a starter though, Akin’s ERA jumps to 8.82. That’s not good.
One positive for Baltimore and Akin is that he has pitched better at home. His home ERA is over a point better, but it is still 6.41. Expecting Akin to last much longer than three innings is not going to happen. He has pitched just three innings in each of his last two starts, both Orioles losses.
On the side, Detroit will start one of the brightest young pitching prospects in the majors. Casey Mize is 6-6 with a 3.57 ERA this season. His last win was on July 29 against Baltimore. In that game, Mize went seven innings and allowed just four hits and no runs. Detroit would go on to win 6-2. The Tigers have played well in support of Mize. Detroit is 6-4 in Mize’s last ten starts.
The Tigers and Orioles have played four times this season. The teams are an even 2-2. Detroit was favored in all four games and, interestingly, the game totals were 10, 9, 9.5, and 10. All four games went Under the posted total. Tonight’s total is another big one at 10.5.
Going Over 10.5 doesn’t appear to be in the cards. With Mize pitching for Detroit and a Tigers lineup that is extremely average – 4.37 runs per game, 18th in MLB – 11 runs doesn’t seem likely. It seems even less likely when you consider the scores of the previous four Tigers-Orioles games: 6-2, 4-3, 5-2, and 6-2.
The wrong team may be favored here as well. While Akin has pitched better at home, it’s not that much better. Plus, he won’t last more than three or four innings which means the Orioles will have to rely on a bullpen that isn’t very good. Baltimore’s relievers own a 5.36 ERA. That ranks 28th out of the 30 MLB teams. Counting on the bullpen to keep the Orioles in this game doesn’t bode a lot of confidence in Baltimore.
When this game opened, Detroit was a +102 underdog. The lines have shifted, but Baltimore is still favored at -109 over a team that has better pitching and has been playing better as of late. The Orioles have dropped five straight games while Detroit is 4-3 in its last seven. Two of those wins were over the Boston Red Sox.