San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
Betting Advice: Milwaukee right-hander Jimmy Nelson is having a strong season, posting a 3.36 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in eleven starts. Nelson boasts a 2.93 ERA and 1.34 WHIP at home and a 2.25 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his last three outings. The 28-year-old’s surface statistics are backed by solid peripherals, including a 3.04 FIP, 3.39 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA
The 28-year-old’s surface statistics are backed by solid peripherals, including a 3.04 FIP, 3.39 xFIP and a 3.57 SIERA. Nelson’s strikeouts have spiked (9.09 K/9), his walks have declined (2.24 BB/9) and his sinker continues to induce a good number of groundballs.
Nelson should find success against a scuffling San Francisco lineup that is averaging just 3.6 runs per game this season (.640 OPS). Meanwhile, San Francisco southpaw Ty Blach has been a pleasant surprise in what has otherwise been a disappointing season for the Giants. Blach is 4-2 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across eight starts and takes the mound in excellent form with a 1.90 ERA in his last three outings.
The 26-year-old’s peripherals suggest that he has been lucky with batted balls in play (.250 BABIP). Blach also owns a 3.87 FIP, 4.65 xFIP and 5.03 SIERA, with the latter mark being the most predictive of future performance. Blach pitches to contact (3.55 K/9) and is a prime candidate for regression in the near future.
From a technical standpoint, San Francisco is 20-50 on the road versus teams with a winning record, 6-17 in its last 23 road games versus right-handed starters and 1-7 in its last eight games versus .501 or greater opposition. With Milwaukee standing at 5-0 in game 3 of a series and 12-3 in its last fifteen games after allowing two runs or less in its previous game, take the Brewers and invest with confidence.
Betting Advice & Free Pick: With Milwaukee standing at 5-0 in game 3 of a series and 12-3 in its last fifteen games after allowing two runs or less in its previous game, take the Brewers and invest with confidence.
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Betting Advice: Tampa Bay rookie Jacob Faria was 6-1 with a 3.07 ERA and 3.22 FIP in 11 starts for Triple-A Durham before being called up to make his Major League debut tonight against the White Sox. In 117 Minor League appearances, Faria is 41-32 with a 3.13 ERA and is the organization’s No. 9 prospect according to MLBPipeline.com.
The 23-year-old has recorded 157 strikeouts and 68 walks over 151 innings at Double- and Triple-A. Faria has garnered an impressive 34.7% strikeout rate, which is backed by a 14% swinging strike rate. The 6-foot-4 righty is clearly ready for the highest level and should have success against a pedestrian Chicago lineup that is averaging 4.2 runs per game on the road (.295 OBP) and 3.9 runs over its last seven games (.310 OBP).
Chicago veteran Mike Pelfrey appears to be having a good season with a 3.86 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, but the soft-tosser has been aided by an unsustainable .228 BABIP (career .315 BABIP). Pelfrey’s peripherals tell the real story: 4.67 FIP, 4.87 xFIP and a 5.01 SIERA, together with a subpar 13.9% strikeout rate.
Betting Advice & Free Pick: With Chicago standing at 1-6 in its last seven road games and 10-25 in its last 35 road games versus .499 or worse opposition, take the Rays behind the rookie arm of Jacob Faria and invest with confidence.