My math model indicates that the wrong team is favored in this Atlantic 10 Conference affair and the Rams are a profitable 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
Prior to Saturday’s loss to Richmond, the Rams had won and covered three consecutive games, including impressive upsets over Rhode Island (53-43; 13.5-point underdogs) and Duquesne (70-52; 2.5-point underdogs).
While George Washington arrives in town off three straight wins (and covers), the Colonials are a money-burning 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. In fact, the Colonials have lost and failed to cover the spread in three of their last four road games, losing by an average margin of 10.7 points per game.
George Washington’s offense has also struggled away from home where they are shooting just 39.8% from the field.
I expect the Colonials’ road woes to continue against a surging Fordham defense that is limiting opponents to a mere 55.6 points over the last five games (41.0% FG%; 26.4% 3-PT%).
Overall, the Rams’ stop unit is 6.0 points per game better than average this season (67.3 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.3 points per game), which is good enough to shut down a pedestrian George Washington attack that rates 1.0 points per game worse than average (70.0 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 71.0 points per game).
The Colonials are 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS on the road this season where they are allowing 74.9 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 40.7% from beyond the arc.
George Washington continues to face inflated point spreads in Atlantic 10 Conference play where the Colonials own a 21-35 ATS record over the last three seasons.
Tonight’s game involves another inflated line and I expect George Washington to fall to 1-9 ATS in its last ten games following back-to-back home tilts. Grab the live home underdog in this Atlantic 10 Conference clash and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports’ Atlantic 10 Conference Free Sports Pick: Fordham (+1.5)