Nevada is a bad football team on both sides of the ball, grading out as 0.8 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yards per play) and 0.6 yards per play worse than average defensively (6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average just 5.5 yards per play).
The Wolf Packs’s run-first attack is 0.9 yards per rush attempt worse than average (4.3 yards per rush play against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per rush attempt) and plays into the strength of Wyoming’s defense.
Specifically, the Cowboys’ stop unit has been 0.7 yards per play better than average against the run this season (3.8 yards per rush attempt to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yards per rush play).
Most teams can exploit Wyoming’s subpar secondary that is 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average, but the Wolf Pack are averaging just 179 yards per game through the air in 2016 at 6.7 yards per pass attempt.
I don’t see how Nevada will be able to move the chains in this game against a well-rested Wyoming squad coming off a bye and showing significant growth under head coach Craig Bohl.
Wyoming is averaging 33.2 points per game this season and should have success moving the ball against a terrible Nevada stop unit that struggles against both the run (0.7 yards per rush play worse than average) and the pass (0.6 yards per pass attempt worse than average).
From a technical standpoint, Wyoming is 7-1 ATS in its last eight October games, whereas the Wolf Pack are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 October affairs and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
My math model favors Wyoming by a touchdown and the situation is also favorable to the Cowboys, who are off a bye and face an emotionally-drained Nevada squad off a heartbreaking 14-10 loss to San Jose State last week.
Better team. Check. Better head coach (Craig Bohl). Check. Better scheduling circumstances. Check. Better value from a point spread standpoint. Check.
Lay the points with the Wyoming Cowboys as Oskeim Sports’ Free Pick for Saturday, October 22!