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World Series Betting Preview: St. Louis at Boston

Game One of the 2013 World Series is set to commence at 8:07 p.m. eastern time under overcast skies and temperatures in the high 40s. Boston swept the Cardinals in the 2004 World Series, but St. Louis has not forgotten about that defeat.  “Some of us have some pretty bad memories of being here in 2004, and we’re looking to kind of right that ship,” St. Louis manager Mike Matheny said.  Let’s take a closer look at how these teams matchup for Game One Wednesday night.

Pitching Report:

  • Adam Wainwright – 21-10 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.05 WHIP this season, including going 10-4 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the road, 11-8 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at night, 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.03 WHIP versus American League opposition and 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in postseason play.  Wainwright is 20-10 (+13.2 units) as an underdog, 17-8 (+12.0 units) as a road underdog and 45-27 (+17.7 units) in competitively-priced games;
  • Jon Lester – 17-9 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 2013, including going 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home, 10-8 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at night, 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP versus National League opposition and 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in postseason.  Lester is 21-27 (-14.8 units) at night, 22-28 (-17.5 units) in the second half of the season and 3-9 (-8.5 units) off two or more consecutive wins.

Batting Report:

  • Boston – Batting .275 with a .343 on base percentage in 2013 (5.2 runs per game), including hitting .283 with a .350 on base percentage at home (5.2 runs per game), .274 with a .344 on base percentage versus right-handed starters (5.3 runs per game), .302 with a .356 on base percentage in interleague play (5.9 runs per game) and .236 with a .316 on base percentage in the playoffs (4.5 runs per game);
  • St. Louis – Batting .265 with a .324 on base percentage this season (4.8 runs per game), including hitting .260 with a .320 on base percentage on the road (4.9 runs per game), .246 with a .304 on base percentage versus left-handed starters (3.9 runs per game), .275 with a .333 on base percentage versus American League pitchers (5.0 runs per game) and .210 with a .281 on base percentage in postseason play (3.8 runs per game).

Technical Analysis:

  • The Red Sox are 8-0 in their last eight World Series games;
  • The Red Sox are 50-15 in their last 65 interleague games versus a right-handed starter;
  • The Red Sox are 41-13 in their last 54 interelague games as a favorite of -150 or less;
  • The Red Sox are 12-3 in their last fifteen home games with Jon Lester on the mound;
  • The Cardinals are 35-16 in Adam Wainwright’s last 51 starts;
  • The Cardinals are 15-6 in Wainwright’s last 21 road starts;
  • The Cardinals are 35-17 in their last 52 games overall.

Both teams possess excellent bullpens, and both relief staffs have excelled in the playoffs this season.  Specifically, the Cardinals’ bullpen owns a 1.80 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 30 postseason innings pitched, while Boston’s relievers boast a 0.84 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 32 postseason innings. The experts at Pro Edge lean with Boston in Game 1, together with the ‘under’ 7 runs.

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