There aren’t many occasions when I will say that a 33-point underdog looks attractive on paper, but that is precisely the case with North Texas as the Mean Green arrive in Athens with a lot of confidence. The biggest concern for Georgia is its defense that has allowed 34.0 points per game, including 211 rushing yards (5.2 yards per carry), 249 passing yards (9.1 yards per pass attempt) and 460 total yards (6.7 yards per play). Overall, the Bulldogs are 0.4 yards per rush play, 1.1 yards per pass attempt and 0.5 yards per play worse than average defensively, which is bad enough to allow North Texas to score some points Saturday afternoon.
Georgia Defense vs. North Texas Offense:
- +0.4 yards per rush play advantage
- -0.9 yards per pass attempt disadvantage
- -0.1 yards per play disadvantage overall
The above numbers do not reflect a matchup involving a 33-point home favorite, especially a team from the overrated SEC. North Texas head coach Dan McCarney has done a tremendous job with this program, and his quarterback (Thompson) is completing 70.9% of his passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt. The heart of North Texas cannot be questioned after the Mean Green came back from a 20-3 deficit last week against Ball State before securing a 34-27 win. More importantly, North Texas has covered five consecutive games as 23 point or more underdogs, including ATS wins at Clemson, Alabama and LSU.
The situational analysis also favors North Texas as the Bulldogs have a huge game against LSU on deck, which is significant in that Georgia is 1-6 ATS in games prior to facing the Tigers. Let’s also note that home favorites of 12 or more points are a money-burning 27-47 ATS in games before playing teams coached by Les Miles. With coach McCarney standing at a perfect 3-0 ATS versus SEC opposition, take the Mean Green and invest with confidence.