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Free NFL Sports Pick: St. Louis Rams over Dallas Cowboys

Despite several years of mediocrity, the betting public loves to support the Cowboys as they remain one of the most heavily bet teams in all of football.  Indeed, the Cowboys are 7-21-1 ATS as favorites, which substantiates the fact that Dallas is a “public” team that forces the oddsmakers to inflate the point spread in order to attract even action on both sides of their games.  Please find below Pro Edge’s Free NFL Sports Pick between the St. Louis Rams and Dallas Cowboys.

St. Louis Rams (+4) (-110) over Dallas Cowboys

Fundamental Analysis:

  • Dallas is averaging 26.0 points per game this season on 62 rushing yards (3.2 yards per carry), 262 passing yards (5.8 yards per pass attempt) and 324 total yards (5.0 yards per play);
  • Overall, the Cowboys are 0.1 yards per rush play worse than average offensively, while being 0.4 yards per pass attempt and 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively;
  • St. Louis is averaging 25.5 points per game on 68 rushing yards (3.2 yards per carry), 325 passing yards (7.0 yards per pass attempt) and 393 total yards (5.8 yards per play);
  • The Rams are 0.3 yards per rush play better than average offensively, while being 0.7 yards per pass attempt and 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively;
  • Neither team plays good defense as St. Louis is 0.1 yards per play worse than average (6.3 yards per play to teams that combine to average 6.2 yards per play), while the Cowboys are 0.9 yards per play worse than average defensively (6.8 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.9 yards per play);
  • Despite being 2-0 ATS this season, the Cowboys are being outgained by 71 yards per game.

Technical Analysis:

  • Dallas is 5-1 SU and ATS in this series and owns a 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS record in Game Three of the regular season;
  • St. Louis is 8-18-1 ATS versus NFC East opposition;
  • Dallas is 4-13 ATS at home, 3-11 ATS as home favorites and 6-18 ATS versus conference opponents, while head coach Jason Garrett is 7-17-1 ATS as a favorite;
  • St. Louis head coach Jeff Fisher is 88-61 ATS as an underdog in his career, whereas Jason Garrett is 10-21 ATS versus conference foes and 4-12 ATS as a home favorite.

The public is once again betting the Cowboys at a 3-to-1 ratio and Pro Edge believes the wrong team is favored in this game.  Grab the points with St. Louis behind one of the best coaches in football.