The situation strongly favors the home underdog as Oregon State is coming off an exhausting 51-48 overtime win in the altitude against Utah, whereas the Aztecs enjoyed a bye week in order to get everyone healthy. Pro Edge Sports and its professional sources throughout the nation all agree that the point spread in this game is a reflection of the team’s disparate results (to date), but our math models only favor the Beavers by 6.5-points. Please see below for our Week Four College Football Betting Preview between Oregon State and San Diego State.
Oregon State at San Diego State (+10.5) (-110)
- Despite being 2-1 on the season, the Beavers have been outgained by both Eastern Washington and Utah (582 yards allowed on average);
- While Oregon State found itself in a hotly-contested overtime game at Utah, the Aztecs had a bye week to get star running back Adam Muema healthy. Muema is a key component to San Diego State’s offense as “Sea Biscuit” rushed for 1,458 yards on 6.2 yards per rush play last season.
- Muema is expected to return for Saturday’s game, while backup quarterback Quinn Kaehler, who replaced an ineffective Adam Dingwell at Ohio State, has had a full week of practice with the starting offensive unit;
- San Diego State head coach Rocky Long is 7-3 ATS versus the Pac-12 and 11-4 ATS as an underdog following consecutive losses, including 5-1 ATS versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win;
- Coach Long is also 11-4 SU and 12-3 ATS with rest during the regular season, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog of seven or more points;
- 0-2 college football teams are 11-7 SU and 11-6 ATS in games off a loss of 28 or more points, provided they played in the postseason the prior year;
- Oregon State is 9-23 ATS on the road in the first month of the season, whereas the Aztecs are 13-3 ATS after being blown-out in their previous game;
- Pro Edge Sports also has two powerful technical situations that play against certain road favorites who allowed 30 or more points in their previous game and college teams coming off an overtime game the previous week
Coach Long has fifteen returning starters and should find his squad in a bowl game in 2013. Pro Edge’s sources were also impressed with the poise demonstrated by Kaehler at Ohio State where he was 22-of-36 for 216 yards and a touchdown. It’s impossible to recommend an investment on a double-digit road favorite off an overtime game in altitude (at Utah), especially since the bloated favorite has been outgained in two of its first three games this season.