Week 9 College Football Blowout Alert: San Jose State Spartans

Oct 25, 2013

San Jose State over Wyoming Sports Pick

I have been working diligently in order to provide members of Oskeim Sports with more college football betting previews and free sports picks.  I have been able to complete most of my analysis on Saturday’s college football card, and below you will find one of the games that I like from a betting standpoint.

San Jose State (-7) (-115) over Wyoming

San Jose State is one of the best .500 teams in college football, and the Spartans entered their bye week off back-to-back road wins over Hawaii (37-27) and Colorado State (34-27).  The Spartans’ offense is led by future NFL quarterback David Fales, who has averaged an impressive 7.8 yards per pass attempt against a group of secondaries that combine to allow just 6.3 yards per pass play to a mediocre collegiate quarterback.  Overall, San Jose State is 0.9 yards per pass play and 1.0 yards per play better than average offensively this season, which gives the Spartans a significant advantage over Wyoming’s inept stop unit.

Indeed, Wyoming is yielding 28.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per rush play, 6.3 yards per pass play and 5.7 yards per play to teams that combine to average just 5.0 yards per carry, 5.2 yards per pass play and 5.2 yards per play.  Overall, the Cowboys are 0.4 yards per rush play, 1.1 yards per pass attempt and 0.5 yards per play worse than average defensively in 2013.

San Jose State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense

  • +0.2 yards per rush play advantage
  • +2.0 yards per pass attempt advantage
  • +1.5 yards per play advantage overall from the line of scrimmage

The mismatch from the line of scrimmage is quite shocking in this game, and the disparity in talent is even greater when Wyoming plays on the road where the Cowboys are allowing 34.0 points per game on 326 rushing yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 485 total yards (6.4 yards per play) this season. I project San Jose State eclipsing 500 yards offensively in this game, which is significant in that the Spartans are 20-3 ATS when gaining 500 or more yards in a game and 27-6 ATS when averaging 6.5 yards or more per play in a contest.

Meanwhile, the betting public perceives Wyoming as having a good offense, but the Cowboys are actually mediocre at best as they are averaging 6.5 yards per play to teams that combine to allow 6.6 yards per play.  On the other hand, San Jose State is allowing 5.6 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.7 yards per play, thereby giving the Spartans a 0.2 yards per play advantage defensively over Wyoming’s attack.

I am well aware of the fact that Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen is 15-4 ATS as a road underdog, but the Spartans are 8-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record, 10-2 ATS as favorites, 10-2 ATS following a win and 15-5 ATS after the first month of the season.  Lay the points and invest with confidence.