California is the only team in college football to have failed to cover the point spread this season (0-7 ATS), and the Bears have lost all four of its conference games by an average of thirty points. Meanwhile, Washington enters tonight’s Homecoming contest off three consecutive losses to Stanford, Oregon and Arizona State, but .501 or greater teams off three straight defeats are 28-9-1 ATS as home favorites of of 20 or more points. Washington is 8-2 ATS in conference play, has a bye on deck and is in desperate need of a “feel-good” win after the last few weeks.
Despite the lofty point spread in this affair (Washington is a 27.5-point favorite as of Friday), the experts at Pro Edge Sports do not trust a California squad that is 1-12 ATS off one or more losses, 2-10 ATS after the first month of the season and 2-11 ATS versus conference opponents. Here is why the four touchdown point spread is not enough to get the Bears their first cover of the season:
Washington Offense vs. California Defense:
- +1.6 yards per pass attempt advantage
- +0.6 yards per play advantage overall
Those numbers become even more lopsided when taking into account the fact that California is allowing 44.4 points per game on the road this season, including 525 yards at 6.9 yards per play and 11.8 yards per point!
Washington Defense vs. California Offense:
- +1.2 yards per rush play advantage
- +2.0 yards per pass attempt advantage
- +1.3 yards per play advantage overall
California head coach Sonny Dykes must be wondering how his team is going to move the chains in this game, especially knowing that the Bears are averaging just 13.0 points per game on the road on 2.9 yards per rush play, 4.5 yards per pass attempt and 3.7 yards per play.
After losing Hall-of-Fame head coach Don James to pancreatic cancer on Sunday, Washington is dedicating Saturday’s Homecoming game to the legendary leader. “Absolutely legendary coach,” senior co-captain and safety Sean Parker said following Tuesday’s practice. “I always give respect to those who’ve come before me. He’s built this legacy and this championship demeanor of Washington football. I highly respect Coach James and I’m a huge fan.”
Washington is also focused on proving that it is better than last Saturday’s embarrassing loss at Arizona State. “Our team is pretty close right now,” starting defensive tackle Evan Hudson said. “We’ve come together to get through it as a team. We aren’t going to point fingers at anybody. We are going to lock up and get through this together, go out there on Saturday and get a W.” Washington co-captain John Timu summed it up best: “Everyone has the mindset of, don’t forget what happened, but we’ve moved on from it. We’ll learn from it. And, I tell you what, we’ll get better, much better than we showed last Saturday. And we will show it against Cal.”
We believe the Washington Huskies win by 40+ points on Saturday.