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Villanova Looks to Avenge Humiliating Defeat

After being humiliated by Creighton at home last month (96-68), we expect a very focused effort from Jay Wright’s squad tonight.  Villanova is 14-4 ATS versus teams with a winning record, 8-1 ATS in competitively-priced games (+3 to -3), 16-6 ATS on the road, 21-10 ATS versus conference opponents, 12-4 ATS after covering the point spread and 16-4 ATS off one or more consecutive wins (10-2 ATS off five or more consecutive games).

Fundamental Analysis: Villanova Offense vs. Creighton Defense

Villanova is 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS on the road where the Wildcats are averaging 81.2 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 39.1% from beyond the arc. Overall, Villanova is 10.1 points per game better than average offensively this season (80.7 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 70.6 points per game), which gives the Wildcats a solid 5.1 points per game advantage over Creighton’s stop unit.  For those interested, Creighton is allowing 65.7 points per game to teams that would combine to average 71.3 points per game, thereby making the Blue Jays 5.6 points per game better than average defensively.

Fundamental Analysis: Villanova Defense vs. Creighton Offense

Villanova is allowing 66.7 points per game to teams that would combine to average 73.4 points per game, including limiting foes to 40.3% shooting from the field.  The Wildcats are also limiting opponents to 40.8% from the floor on the road and, overall, Jay Wright’s squad is 6.7 points per game better than average defensively.  Meanwhile, Creighton takes the floor with a very good offense that is averaging 80.0 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the floor and 41.8% from beyond the arc.  The Blue Jays are a perfect 13-0 at home where they are averaging 83.1 points per game on 49.9% shooting from the field and 40.9% from three-point territory.  Overall, Creighton is 11.1 points per game better than average offensively this season, which gives the Blue Jays a decent 4.4 points per game advantage on the offensive end of the floor.

Villanova Remains Underrated by the Oddsmakers

Despite standing at 22-2 on the season, Villanova continues to be undervalued by the oddsmakers. In fact, Villanova is 17-5 ATS overall this season, including 10-3 ATS following a double-digit win and 10-2 ATS after four or more consecutive wins.  We expect Villanova to avenge its embarrassing loss to Creighton earlier this season as the Blue Jays are a money-burning 1-10 ATS in the month of February over the last two seasons.


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