Wright State at Oakland (pk) (-110)
Greg Kampe brought his up-tempo style to the Horizon League as the Golden Grizzlies are averaging 82.9 points per game at home on 47.1% shooting from the field and 40.4% from beyond the arc. Overall, Oakland is 4.0 points per game better than average offensively (73.9 points per game against teams that combine to allow 69.9 points per game), which gives Wright State a 3.8 points per game advantage on the defensive end of the floor. However, the Raiders take the court with an anemic offense that is averaging 67.3 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 72.7 points per game. Even more concerning is the fact that Wright State is 3-11 SU and 4-8 ATS on the road where the Raiders are averaging just 63.9 points per game. Oakland possesses a nominal 0.4 points per game advantage defensively over the Raiders’ attack.
The technical analysis favors Wright State as the Raiders are 22-8 ATS following an upset loss to a conference foe, 21-8 ATS off an upset loss at home and 14-2 ATS on the road following two consecutive conference games. Our math model favors Oakland by one point so the line is fair, but the Grizzlies are 9-3 at home and should walk away with the win this afternoon.
Wisconsin (+4.5) (-110) at Michigan
The question in this game is which defense will prevail as both teams possess outstanding stop units. Wisconsin is 8.5 points per game better than average defensively (63.3 points per game to teams that combine to average 71.8 points per game), while the Wolverines are 7.9 points per game better than average defensively (64.4 points per game to teams that combine to average 72.3 points per game). However, Michigan is 10-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home where the Wolverines are limiting opponents to just 58.0 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the floor and 27.0% from beyond the arc.
From an offensive standpoint, Wisconsin is 7.0 points per game better than average (73.2 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 66.2 points per game), while the Wolverines are 7.4 points per game better than average (75.5 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 68.1 points per game). We should point out, however, that Michigan is averaging 81.5 points per game at home this season on 52.1% shooting from the field and 42.2% from three-point territory. From a technical standpoint, Wisconsin is a money-burning 4-18 ATS versus teams with a win percentage between .600 and .800 and 10-21 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games. With Michigan standing at 7-1 ATS following a road game, we will give a very slight lean to the Wolverines.