Troy is another double-digit underdog that Pro Edge’s handicapping experts like on Saturday as college football teams coming off their initial loss of the season (Troy) are 105-81-3 ATS on the road the following week, including 93-59-1 ATS if our ‘play on’ team also failed to cover the point spread in the previous game. Please see below for why we believe the Troy is primed to cash betting tickets for sports bettors on Saturday:
Troy (+14) (-110) over Mississippi State
- Troy is averaging 44.7 points per game on 9.0 yards per pass attempt and 547 total yards (6.9 yards per play; 12.3 yards per point);
- While Troy’s offense is 0.1 yards per play better than average this season, the Bulldogs’ attack is only 0.2 yards per play better than average. That nominal differential is not indicative of a double-digit favorite in our opinion;
- The Trojans are a perfect 3-0 ATS in this series and went on the SEC road last year and nearly defeated Tennessee as 18-point underdogs (55-48).
We cannot recommend a wager on a double-digit home favorite who has yet to defeat a quality opponent. Mississippi State is 1-2 on the season with disappointing losses to both Oklahoma State and Auburn, whereas the Trojans are 2-1 and have outgained each of their first three opponents. Pro Edge is also concerned about Mississippi State’s quarterback situation now that senior Tyler Russell is out with a concussion (injured in week 1). With the Bulldogs standing at 4-21 SU and 9-16 ATS versus opponents with a .67 or greater win percentage, we recommend a wager on Troy.