Miami improved to 3-0 after Sunday’s come-from-behind win over Atlanta, but the Dolphins are the most overrated 3-0 team in the NFL. Let’s take a look at the metrics, which support this conclusion:
- Miami is averaging 24.7 points per game, including 70 rushing yards (3.2 yards per carry), 249 passing yards (7.0 yards per pass attempt) and 319 total yards (5.6 yards per play);
- Overall, Miami is 0.5 yards per rush play worse than average, while being 0.4 yards per pass attempt and 0.2 yards per play better than average;
- Being a mere 0.2 yards per play better than average offensively is not indicative of a 3-0 NFL team, especially in light of the fact that the Dolphins possess a one-dimensional attack.
- Miami is allowing 17.7 points per game this season, including 4.7 yards per rush play, 5.9 yards per pass attempt and 372 total yards (5.5 yards per play);
- Overall, the Dolphins are 0.1 yards per rush play worse than average defensively, while being 0.3 yards per pass attempt and 0.2 yards per play better than average on the defensive side of the ball;
- Similar to its offense, Miami’s stop unit is pedestrian from the line of scrimmage. Even more concerning is its rush defense that is yielding 4.7 yards per carry.
Miami travels to New Orleans for a Monday Night game against a Saints team that is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons, including 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less. New Orleans is 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively (6.1 yards per play against teams that combine to allow 5.7 yards per play) and 0.1 yards per play worse than average defensively (5.6 yards per play to teams that combine to average 5.5 yards per play). The problem for Miami is the fact that it’s offensive strength (passing) plays into the hands of New Orleans as the Saints are 0.7 yards per pass attempt better than average defensively. Don’t be deceived by Miami’s 3-0 record as regression is right around the corner.