Monday’s Major League Baseball Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays

May 25, 2015


Toronto right-hander Drew Hutchison has finally turned the corner after struggling in the first month of the 2015 Major League Baseball campaign. The 24-year-old hurler is 1-1 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over his last three starts, but his underlying metrics suggest that a breakout is on the horizon:

Drew Hutchison’s 2015 Metrics:

3.23 FIP & 3.12 xFIP at home
3.15 FIP & 3.09 in May
22.4% K% & 0.74 HR/9 at home
22.9% K% & 0.82 HR/9 in May

Hutchison now faces a scuffling Chicago lineup that is batting .252 with a .304 on base percentage this season (3.6 runs per game), including hitting .216 with a .269 on base percentage over the last ten days (3.0 runs per game). Hutchison is also supported by a very good Toronto bullpen that owns a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home and a 2.13 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games.

Chicago starter Hector Noesi is 0-3 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 2015, including going 0-1 with a 10.39 ERA and 1.61 WHIP on the road and 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over his last three starts. The likelihood of a turnaround for Noesi are slim to none based upon his underlying metrics:

Hector Noesi’s 2015 Metrics:

6.32 FIP & 5.47 xFIP
4.97 SIERA
9.15 FIP & 6.22 xFIP on the road
6.96 FIP & 5.67 xFIP in May
5.60 BB/9 & 13.3% BB%

Toronto’s lineup gets a boost tonight with the return of Jose Reyes, who has been recovering from a cracked left rib. During his rehab assignment with Triple-A Buffalo, Reyes was 4-for-11 with a pair of RBIs in three games.

From a technical standpoint, Toronto is 8-3 in its last eleven games as a home favorite and 5-2 in Hutchison’s last seven home starts, whereas the White Sox are 2-8 in their last ten versus American League East opposition and 0-5 in Noesi’s last five starts as an underdog. Take Toronto in this Major League Baseball clash and invest with confidence.

Major League Baseball Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays