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Wednesday’s Major League Baseball Betting Preview

james-shields

San Diego right-hander James Shields epitomizes consistency as he has allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his 11 starts.  Shields utilizes a devastating curveball to induce the most swing-and-misses in the National League.  Shields is a perfect 6-0 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season, including going 2-0 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home and 3-0 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at night.

The veteran hurler also possesses very sound underlying metrics, boasting a 2.92 xFIP and 2.73 SIERA.  Here are a few other statistical benchmarks that illustrate Shields’ elite skill set:

  • 11.59 K/9 & 30.7% K%
  • 2.66 xFIP at home
  • 2.99 xFIP in May

Shields is 1-0 with a career 1.29 ERA and 0.42 WHIP versus the Mets.  I also like the fact that San Diego’s bullpen is finally rounding into form, posting a 2.49 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last seven games.  And, Shields should have little trouble shutting down an anemic New York lineup that is batting .229 with a .275 on base percentage on the road (3.2 runs per game) and .231 with a .287 on base percentage at night (3.4 runs per game).

New York right-hander Dillon Gee toes the rubber in good form with a 1.83 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his last three outings, but the 29-year-old is making his first start since going on the disabled list May 3. Gee initially went on the disabled list with a groin strain, but management kept him out significantly longer than he wanted in order to prevent disruption to Matt Harvey’s rotation schedule.

Gee is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 2015, including going 0-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road.  Gee also owns a 4.26 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at night this season and yielded four runs in five innings at San Diego last July.  Let’s also note that the Mets are 1-5 in Gee’s last six starts with a total of 6.5 runs or less.  Meanwhile, New York is a money-burning 7-20 in their last 27 games as underdogs and 3-13 in their last sixteen road night games.

In contrast, San Diego is a profitable 35-16 as a home favorite, 26-12 at home with a total of 6.5 runs or less and 21-10 versus starting pitchers with a WHIP exceeding 1.30.  Finally, tonight’s home plate umpire, Lance Barrett, represents a 62.3% winning proposition for home teams over the last three seasons (6-0 L/6).  With San Diego standing at 5-2 in the last seven meetings at home in this series, take the Padres as set forth in this betting preview and invest with confidence.

Betting Preview & Pick: San Diego Padres

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