While professional bettors have been favoring the Raiders, Steelers, Bills and Jaguars all week, there is one game in particular that is attracting the sharpest money on Sunday. You might be surprised to learn that the professionals are in unison with their bullish attitude towards the Washington Redskins tonight. Let’s take a look at this matchup from a fundamental standpoint to determine whether the pros are onto something here:
Washington Redskins:
- 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively
- 0.2 yards per play worse than average defensively
Dallas Cowboys:
- 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively
- 0.5 yards per play worse than average offensively
Based on the above numbers, Washington actually has a 0.4 yards per play advantage offensively in this contest, although it should be noted that the Redskins have padded their statistics with meaningless yards in several blowout losses. Both teams should move the ball effectively as Dallas has a 0.7 yards per play advantage over the Redskins’ stop unit.
Investing on underdogs with decent grounds games is generally a good idea, which is why the sharps are favoring the Redskins tonight. Specifically, Washington is averaging 4.8 yards per rush play against teams that combine to allow just 4.1 yards per carry, thereby making the Redskins +0.7 yards per rush play better than average. Meanwhile, Dallas is 0.1 yards per rush play worse than average defensively, which gives the Redskins a very significant 0.8 yards per carry advantage on the ground tonight.
Professional bettors also like the situational analysis in this game as the Redskins are coming off a bye week (head coach Mike Shanahan is 10-6-1 ATS off a bye), whereas Dallas is off a heart-breaking 51-48 loss to the Broncos. Technically speaking, Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Dallas and 7-0 ATS as division road underdogs of less than a touchdown. Finally, Washington is 10-4 ATS as Sunday night visitors, whereas the Cowboys are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS under the Sunday night lights. If you decide to play this game, Pro Edge recommends a small wager on the road underdog.