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Thursday Night Football: Sharps Expecting Low-Scoring Affair

Pro Edge Sports has confirmed that several respected betting groups have already made substantial wagers in favor of the ‘under’ 40 points between the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals on Thursday.  With the betting public generally favoring ‘overs’ in prime time affairs, which helps drive the total upwards in the days preceding kick-off, it’s a little surprising to see professional bettors jump on the ‘under’ so quickly.  With that said, the early move on the ‘under’ certainly makes sense based upon the following:

Seattle Defense:

  • Seattle is limiting teams to 15.7 points per game on 3.9 yards per rush play, 5.8 yards per pass attempt and 5.0 yards per play;
  • Overall, the Seahawks are 0.2 yards per rush play, 0.6 yards per pass attempt and 0.3 yards per play better than average defensively.  More importantly, the Seahawks are limiting opponents to just 18.4 yards per point.

Arizona Offense:

  • Arizona possesses a pedestrian offense that is 0.6 yards per rush play, 0.2 yards per pass attempt and 0.3 yards per play worse than average in 2013;
  • Overall, Seattle maintains a significant 0.8 yards per rush play, 0.8 yards per pass attempt and 0.5 yards per play advantage defensively over the Cardinals’ attack.

And, while Seattle does possess an advantage offensively over the Cardinals’ stop unit (0.5 yards per play), the Seahawks’ attack is worse away from home.  Specifically, Seattle is averaging 21.0 points per game on 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 6.0 yards per play on the road, which is 5.2 points per game and 0.9 yards per pass play below its season averages.

The Cardinals take the field with an improved defense that limited San Francisco to just 5.6 yards per play last week.  The concern for ‘under’ bettors, however, is the potential loss of star defensive end Calais Campbell, who was carted off the field with 4:56 left in last week’s game.  “He left the field with movement and the feeling was coming back,” coach Bruce Arians said.  “He had numbness.  It was precautionary.”  Similarly, Seattle defensive end Chris Clemons suffered a hyperextended elbow in last week’s game against the Titans, and head coach Pete Carroll is unsure if he will be ready for Thursday’s contest at Arizona.

One thing is certain – the sharps in Las Vegas and elsewhere are expecting a low-scoring affair in Thursday night’s NFL game between the Seahawks and Cardinals.  Thursday NIght Football may be a snoozer, but that won’t prevent the pros from cashing more tickets.

 

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