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Miami Heat at Boston Celtics UNDER 216 points
Report: Since 2009, NBA playoff home favorites coming off a loss are 211-162-7 (56.6%) to the Under, including 51-37 (58%) since 2020. Since 1999, the Heat are 23-10 (69.7%) to the Under as rested road underdogs following a road win in which they shot better than 50% from the field, covering the total by an average margin of 4.82 points per game. This situation is 13-2 (86.7%) to the Under since March 31, 2013.
Over the last three conference finals seasons, teams coming off an outright loss by nine points or less are 16-5 (76.2%) to the Under in their next game. Finally, the Under falls into profitable 961-734-68 (56.7%), 580-456-39 (56%), and 513-333-35 (60.6%) NBA totals systems of mine that invest on the under in certain games with a posted total of less than 223 points.
However, from the NBA Conference Finals and beyond, when the total is greater than the total in the previous meeting, the over is 23-6-1 (79.3%) since 2015, covering the total by an average margin of +7.7 points per game.
Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights (-125)
Report: After posting a 2.37 GAA and .919 save percentage in 62 regular-season contests, Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has garnered a subpar 2.75 GAA and a .903 save percentage through 13 postseason outings. Oettinger now faces a Vegas attack that has averaged 3.73 goals per game in the playoffs. Jack Eichel leads the offense with six goals and 14 points in eleven postseason affairs.
Vegas remains without goaltender Logan Thompson, who has missed the playoffs due to a lower-body injury. Backup goaltender Laurent Brossoit posted a 3.18 GAA and a .894 save percentage in eight playoff contests before going down with a lower-body injury. The Golden Knights’ Stanley Cup dreams rest squarely on the shoulders of Adin Hill, who owns a 2.19 GAA and a .934 save percentage in five outings.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-180) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Report: Since 2006, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 669-396 SU (62.8%; +3.4% ROI) and 514-476 RL (+6.6% ROI) in league play during the first two months of the season, including 224-112 SU (66.7%; +8.9% ROI) and 187-149 RL (+12.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.93 runs per game. Since 2015, MLB non-divisional road favorites in games with a total of 8 runs or less are 763-550 SU (58.1%), including 280-196 SU (58.8%) since 2020.
Finally, since 2010, rested road favorites coming off a game as favorites in which they led by multiple runs are 309-201 SU (60.6%; +3.8% ROI) and 262-245 RL (+10.6% ROI) versus league opponents, winning by an average margin of +1.28 runs per game.
Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays (ML)
Report: Since 2004, large MLB home favorites with starting pitchers coming off a loss in their previous outing in which they allowed eight or more runs are 468-238 SU (66.3%; +1.6% ROI) and 354-350 RL (+4% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.73 runs per game. Since 2000, .611 or greater home favorites in Game 27 out are 173-80 SU (68.4%; +8.4% ROI) and 113-118 RL (+5.3% ROI) if one additional parameter is met, winning by an average margin of +1.41 runs per game.
Milwaukee falls into a very negative 2613-4631 (36.1%; -4.1% ROI) straight-up and 3713-3112 (-2.2% ROI) run line system of mine that dates to 2006 and invests against road underdogs of +130 or greater versus .551 or greater opposition. This situation is 601-1218 (33%; -9.4% ROI) straight-up and 915-900 (-6% ROI) against the run line since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.46 runs per game.
New York Yankees (-165) at Cincinnati Reds
Report: Since 2016, the Yankees are 217-151 SU (59%; +1.3% ROI) and 190-176 RL (+1.1% ROI), winning by an average margin of +0.86 runs per game. Since 2017, the Yankees are 108-67 SU (61.7%; +2.2% ROI) and 94-80 RL (+4.1% ROI) in the opening game of a non-divisional series, winning by an average of +1.36 runs per game. Finally, New York is a profitable 80-41 SU (+25.1 units) in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.
Minnesota Twins (-130) at Los Angeles Angels
Report: Since 2012, non-divisional road favorites of -160 or less in games with a total of nine runs or less are 553-414 SU (57.2%; +2.8% ROI) and 432-535 RL (+1.6% ROI) in the opening game of a series, including 130-78 SU (62.5%; +10.5% ROI) and 105-103 RL (+11.9% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +1.32 runs per game in that span. Since 2015, MLB non-divisional road favorites in games with a total of 8 runs or less are 763-550 SU (58.1%), including 280-196 SU (58.8%) since 2020.
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