Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Los Angeles Lakers (+5.5) (-110) at Denver Nuggets
Report: Since 2003, NBA playoff teams coming off a win in which they allowed over 25 assists are just 47-65 SU (42%) and 46-63-3 ATS (42.2%) versus teams off a loss, losing by an average margin of -3.69 points per game. Since 2003, NBA Conference Finals home favorites coming off a win as home favorites in Game 1 are 5-6 SU (45.5%) and 1-10 ATS (9.1%) in Game 2 provided one additional parameter is satisfied. These teams have failed to cover the point spread by an average margin of -7.86 points per game in that span. NBA underdogs that cover the spread in the playoffs generally win the game outright, going 23-8 straight-up (74.8%).
However, since 2003, NBA playoff favorites are 275-96 SU (74.1%) and 218-149-4 ATS (59.4%) if the total is at least two points higher than their last playoff game, including 32-11 SU (74.4%) and 31-12 ATS (72.1%) since 2020, winning by an average of +8.53 points per game. The Nuggets are 33-8 SU (80.5%) and 25-16 ATS (61%) since 2009 as favorites of -5.5 to -6.5 points in games with a total of 220 or more points, winning by an average of +7.22 points per game. Denver is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS under these circumstances since April 11, 2022.
As for the total in this game, since 2003, NBA playoff teams averaging 103 or more points per game are 88-62-4 (58.7%) to the Under following a game in which they trailed by fifteen or more points at the half, covering the total by an average margin of 3.24 points per game. The Pace in first half of Game 1 was off the charts at 102 per 48 minutes. However, the Pace dropped to 93 per 48 minutes in the second half as the Nuggets consistently got into their sets with 11 seconds or less left on the shot clock.
In NBA playoff games where both teams shot 40% or better from three-point territory, the under is 51% in the following game. In Game 2’s after a Game 1 over, the under is an even better 41-26 (69.7%) in the last five years.
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles (-145)
Report: Since 2008, MLB road teams off back-to-back road losses by two or more runs are 673-916 SU (42.4%; -5.1% ROI) and 857-729 RL (-2.4% ROI), losing by an average of -0.42 runs per game. Since 2012, MLB home favorites in games with a total of nine runs or less are 744-464 SU (61.6%; +3.2% ROI)) and 561-645 RL (+2.3% ROI) in afternoon affairs provided the game is not on a Sunday.
Finally, since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are just 2612-4631 SU (36.1%; -4.1% ROI) and 3712-3112 RL (-2.2% ROI) versus .551 or greater opponents, including 457-881 SU (34.2%; -6.7% ROI) and 694-643 RL (-4% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average margin of -1.36 runs per game.
Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes (-145)
Report: Florida has won six consecutive games on the road and is looking to get back to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 1996. Meanwhile, Carolina has won 14 of their past 16 playoff games at PNC Arena and enjoys home ice in this series. Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky enters with a .918 save percentage, a 2.82 goals against average and boasts a playoff best +9.3 goals saved above expected. At 5-on-5, the Panthers are only allowing 12 high-danger scoring chances against.
Carolina goaltender Frederik Andersen boasts a .931 save percentage, a 1.80 goals against average and a +3.9 goals saved above expected (third best). Andersen is supported by a Carolina defense that is allowing 2.55 goals per game, which is the second-lowest of all 16 teams that were in the playoffs. Since 2014, NHL teams entering off an overtime game are just 208-284 (42.3%) from Game 41 out versus .601 or better opposition, including 86-132 (39.4%) since 2020.
Since 2007, NHL non-divisional road underdogs of +200 or less (excluding Central teams) coming off a win that went under the total are just 486-790 (38.1%), losing by an average margin of -0.68 goals per game.
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