Oklahoma Visits Kansas State in Big 12 Showdown

Nov 19, 2013

Kansas State is quietly getting the job done this season under veteran head coach Bill Snyder as the Wildcats have won four straight, while covering the point spread in five of their last six games.  The latter figure indicates that Kansas State remains undervalued by the betting marketplace, and the experts at Pro Edge Sports offer a slight lean to the modest home favorite Saturday afternoon.

Kansas State takes the field with one of the most underrated offenses in the nation as the Wildcats are averaging an impressive 33.9 points per game at 4.7 yards per rush play, 9.1 yards per pass play, 6.3 yards per play and 12.0 yards per point.  The Wildcats are 5-2 at home this season where they are averaging 34.3 points per game at 9.6 yards per pass play and 6.5 yards per play so Oklahoma certainly has its hands full Saturday afternoon.

Kansas State Offense in 2013:

  • 0.6 yards per rush play better than average
  • 2.0 yards per pass attempt better than average
  • 0.8 yards per play better than average

While the Wildcats are not as strong on the defensive side of the ball, they are still an above-average team and are very capable of slowing down Oklahoma’s attack. Specifically, Kansas State is limiting opponents to 23.3 points per game at 3.9 yards per rush play, 6.4 yards per pass attempt and 5.2 yards per play.  Overall, the Wildcats are 0.5 yards per rush play, 0.8 yards per pass play and 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively this season.

The relevant inquiry is whether Kansas State is good enough from the line of scrimmage to compete with the Sooners.  Based on the fundamental analysis, Pro Edge actually favors Kansas State by 4-points in this contest after taking into account home field advantage. The teams match up evenly when Oklahoma has the ball as the Sooners are 0.5 yards per play better than average offensively, whereas the Wildcats are 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively.  Similarly, the teams are very even when Kansas State has the ball, although the Wildcats do possess a nominal 0.1 yards per play advantage offensively.

The key in this game will be Kansas State’s ground game, which is 0.6 yards per carry better than average, against Oklahoma’s front seven that are yielding 229 rushing yards per game at 5.0 yards per carry on the road.  And, that matchup in the trenches is relevant in that the Wildcats are 25-7 ATS when they rush for 4.5 to 5.0 yards per game.  The Wildcats should also have success moving the ball through the air as they maintain a 0.9 yards per pass play advantage over Oklahoma’s secondary.  Let’s also note that Kansas State is 8-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record, 12-3 ATS versus conference opponents and 11-3 ATS after the first month of the season.