Oskeim Sports 5* Monday Night Football Release: Patriots/Panthers

Nov 18, 2013

NOTE: The selection below was released to my private clients earlier today.  The analysis below is what all members of Oskeim Sports have grown to expect and appreciate.  My long-term records offer serious sports bettors a second income.  No false promises, boiler-room operations or high-pressure sales tactics.  Just industry-leading honesty, integrity and transparency.

Carolina Panthers (ML) (-145) over New England Patriots

Analysis: The betting market continues to undervalue Carolina despite the fact that the Panthers have won and covered five straight, including last week’s impressive road win over the 49ers. Carolina enters tonight’s game with an outstanding defense that is allowing 12.8 points per game at 3.8 yards per rush play, 5.9 yards per pass play and 5.1 yards per play.  The Panthers are also excellent at keeping plays in front of them as evidenced by the fact that opponents are averaging 22.2 yards per point, which is 7.2 yards per point worse than average on a league-wide scale.  Teams have not been able to pass on Carolina’s secondary as the Panthers have allowed the fourth-fewest yards through the air (1,812), while giving up just seven touchdowns and intercepting thirteen passes (tied for the most in the NFL).  The Panthers’ run defense has only allowed two scores in 2013, while yielding the second-fewest yards on the ground (738 on 3.8 yards per carry).

Let’s also note that Carolina is yielding just 9.2 points per game at home this season at 3.3 yards per rush play, 5.5 yards per play and 30.4 yards per point.  In their last seven games, the Panthers are limiting teams to 249 yards per game, including holding the 49ers to 151 total yards at 2.9 yards per play! Carolina’s swarming defense wreaked havoc in San Francisco where quarterback Colin Kaepernick was 11-of-22 for only 46 yards.  Kaepernick was also sacked six times and threw an interception against the Panthers’ stop unit.  Defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Harvey have combined for 13.5 sacks this season.

Carolina Defense vs. New England Offense:

+0.0 yards per rush play advantage
+0.8 yards per pass attempt advantage
+0.4 yards per play advantage overall

Meanwhile, New England’s defense is allowing 26.0 points per game on on the road this season (388 total yards), whereas the Panthers are averaging 27.2 points per game at home (7.2 yards per pass play; 11.9 yards per point). Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has completed 67.4% of his pass attempts over the last six games, while also helping the Panthers convert a league-high 36.4% of third downs of at least 10 yards.  In its current five game win streak, Carolina has outscored opponents 140-57, and the Panthers are ranked 3rd in the NFL with a 46.2% third down conversion rate.  Even better news for Carolina investors is the fact that the Patriots will be without starting cornerback Alfonzo Dennard (knee) and safety Steve Gregory (broken right thumb).  Cornerbacks Kyle Arrington (groin) and Aqib Talib (hip) were both limited in practice this week and are questionable to play tonight.

From a technical standpoint, the fact that Carolina is coming off a win over Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers is significant in that NFL teams that defeat Harbaugh & Co. are a perfect 10-0 SU in their next game, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog or favorite of less than three points.  Carolina is 14-4 ATS in games off consecutive SU and ATS wins, including 6-1 SU and ATS at home.  Looking at both quarterbacks, it’s interesting to note that Newton is 6-1 ATS versus .750 or greater opposition off a win, whereas Tom Brady is 0-5-1 ATS with rest versus an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins.  Monday Night home favorites playing off a road win the previous Sunday are an incredible 28-3 SU and 21-9-1 ATS since 2006.

My math model favors Carolina by four points, which further substantiates my earlier assertion that the betting market continues to undervalue the Panthers.  The enthusiasm is palpable in Charlotte, and reports from within the franchise suggest that the locker room has never been more unified. “We’re relevant right now,” Newton said.  “But we can’t just stop and say, ‘Hey, let’s pop bottles. Let’s celebrate, order some hot wings and pizza. We’re just halfway through the season.  We just have to continue doing the things that’s putting this feeling in our hearts because it’s becoming a special thing to watch.”  Take Carolina on the money line and invest with confidence.